Oscar Predictions

[Bornieo: Fully Loaded]

So, tomorrow (tuesday) they announce the nominations for the 2006 Academy Awards!!

What are your predictions???

Mine for Best Picture -
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
The Departed
Babel
Flags of our Fathers

[Alex]

I'll post my predictions when I get back into the office tomorrow.

[innerSpaceman]

Sheesh, you'd think with all those screeners, I'd remember some of the movies that aspire to Oscar nominations. But I think I overloaded, and forgot most of them.

My pics for best pic:

Children of Men
Little Children
The Queen

yep, those are the ones I liked.

I found The Departed over-rated. Loved Pan's Labyrinth, but it's a foreign language shoe-in. Casino Royale is probably my favorite film of the year, but it's not Oscar-worthy. I hated Babel for a best picture Oscar worse than Gemini Cricket hated Crash last year for the same. Dreamgirls was craptacular, imo. And I've yet to see Notes on a Scandal, so I hope a nomination is forthcoming to inspire me to actually go to the movies.

I think Leonard DiCaprio should be nominated for both his films (as he was for the Globes) and I think Cate Blanchette deserves at least two nominations as well. Helen Mirren is sure to get one. Mark Wahlberg and Jack Nicolson were both great in The Departed. Toni Collette deserves a nom for Little Miss Sunshine and Kate Winslet one for Little Children.

[LSPoorEeyorick]

I'm cutting it close! We're up early to watch the announcements. (Such geeks!)

For best pic:
Little Miss Sunshine
The Departed
The Queen
Letters from Iwo Jima
Dreamgirls

(Of the movies I actually liked, swap out Departed for Pan's, and Dreamgirls for Volver. I'm already taking a chance on Iwo Jima, hoping that Babel polarized the audience enough to pass it by.)

Mine, assorted:
Best actress, Helen Mirren, Kate Winslet, Judi Dench, Meryl Streep, Penelope Cruz
Best supporting actress, Abigail Breslin, Toni Colette, Jennifer Hudson
Best supporting actor, Djimon Honsou, Alan Arkin, Michael Sheen, Jack Nicholson, Eddie Murphy
Best actor: I didn't love any performance enough to care.
Director, Iwo Jima, Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen, The Departed
Editing/Art Direction/Cinematography: Children of Men, Pan's Labyrinth


Tom's, for best pic:
Departed
Dreamgirls
Babel
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

[Gemini Cricket]

Interesting...

No Best Pic nom for 'Dreamgirls'.
No Best Acting nom for 'Borat'.
No Best Supporting nom for 'The Queen'.
No Best Director nom for 'Volver'.

Love that Abigail Breslin and Alan Arkin got nominated for 'Sunshine'.
Love that 'Pan's' and 'Children of Men' got a few noms.
Love that 'United 93' got a directing nom.
Love that Gore might go up there to receive an Oscar.

Interesting nominations.

[Stan4dSteph]

I hope I get to see Jesus Camp. I wanted to go see it at the Tribeca Film Festival. The clips I've seen are just bizarre!

[Gemini Cricket]

I hope I get to see Jesus Camp. I wanted to go see it at the Tribeca Film Festival. The clips I've seen are just bizarre!
It's coming via Netflix to me today sometime. I'm really interested. Bizarre is the word.

[innerSpaceman]

My relief at Dreamgirls getting shut out of Best Picture and Best Director does not compensate for my disapppintment at the cluelessness of the general Academy in nominating Babel for both awards. Bah.

Though I'll readily admit the two women who got best supporting nods from that picture were terrific. I'm glad Kate Winslet got a best actress nom for Little Children. That's a great picture and should be more widely seen, imo.

I'm ecstatic about Peter O'Toole's best actor nod. He was fantastic, and Venus likewise deserves greater visibility.

I'm pleased that Paul Greengrass got a best director nom for United 93, and that it got an editing nomination. That was just a terrific movie. If Greengrass goes on to win, it might just make up for his movie missing its just desserts as a Best Picture nominee.

The acting noms for Little Miss Sunshine are cool, but I think Toni Collette was wrongly overlooked. Meryl Streep, while I adore her, was merely a supporting player (imo) in The Devil Wears Prada ... but I guess when you're Meryl Streep, your persona looms larger than your actual role.

Mark Wahlberg's nom for best supporting was d'uh ... but I'm surprised Nicolson got nada. It was his best performance in decades. He actually didn't play Jack Nicholson in the role. It's nice that DiCaprio's nod came for Blood Diamond instead of The Departed. He was good in both films, but - - heheh, I loved his SouthAfrikan accent in his nominated performance.

Bah that Children of Men got only screenplay, cinematography and editing. It had terrific performances by Clive Owen and Michael Caine, was fantastically directed by Alfonso Cuaron, and was simply the best movie I've seen in a long time.

It's also too bad that the far-more pedestrian Letters from Iwo Jima shone in the noms much brighter than Flags of Our Fathers, which got only a few tech nods.

Helen Mirren's nom as The Queen was approrpriate. Now I've got to go out and see Forest Whitaker as Idi Amin and Judi Dench in Notes on a Scandal. All things being equal, I'll likely root for Judi Dench, playing a fictional character.

I'm also going to have to catch Penelope Cruz's performance in Volver and Ryan Gosling in Half Nelson. I'm surprised at how many best actor and actress nominated performances were missed in my annual screener deluge. Seems I'll be hitting a few pre-Oscar movies at the cinema after all.

[Cadaverous Pallor]

Comedies barely ever win best pic. Even a dark comedy has the odds against it. Still, I'll be rooting for Little Miss Sunshine. :)

Am I truly in a tiny minority when I say that I don't like dramas all that much? I'm not saying they're bad. When I do see them I "enjoy" them, but most of the time, I don't want to cry my eyes out and think depressed thoughts for a week after seeing a film.

That said, I'm still kinda bummed we haven't seen The Departed yet.

[Cadaverous Pallor]

Three songs from Dreamgirls? THREE? :rolleyes: Yeah, I haven't seen it, but that seems a bit much.

[innerSpaceman]

Better those that were actually in a movie than songs that play over the end credits, imo.

Of course, it's kind of ironic that likely the best songs from that movie were ineligible to be nominated -- having been written for the stage show decades ago.



Oh, also on the subject of music nominations ... I truly hope someone exposes the FRAUD of the Babel score nomination. That score is NOT original. The climactic queue when Brad and Cate are finally being rescued by helicopter was composed - note for frelling note - for an episode of Deadwood that aired four years ago!

I call Shenanigans!

[LSPoorEeyorick]

I thought Flags was far, far more pedestrian than Iwo Jima, actually.

Hurrah for LMS. We've been rooting for it since the night it opened.

And while I don't mind terribly that Dreamgirls missed out on the bigger noms, I found myself pretty saddened that there was no best supporting nom for The Queen, and far too few noms for Volver. I was glad to see Pan get as much as it did. Where was the screenplay nom for Stranger than Fiction??

We yet need to catch Venus, Notes on a Scandal, and Last King of Scotland. (Plus those great short noms... did you all see that Disney's Little Match Girl got it? Pixar also has one that looks adorable. As for live action, the musical about the dueling falafel stands is something I'm quite looking forward to.)

Cheers to Tom's old school chum, who was nominated for Best Documentary, feature-length.

[innerSpaceman]

A true shame that Stranger Than Fiction was shut out, especially - yes - in the screenplay noms.

It'll be interesting to see the lists of near-misses and disses. There are always some truly worthy talents and projects among those.

[mousepod]

What I find interesting is that if you see all 5 of the Best Picture nominees, you will have seen only one of the Best Lead Actor/Actress nominees (Helen Mirren in The Queen). Do you all think that this means that there were so many great films to choose from that the Academy scattered their nominating votes, or that the acting community (who nominates their own) couldn't agree on recognizing anyone from the largely ensemble movies?

[Alex]

Do make an effort for The Last King of Scotland. Despite my major bitches about it in the movie musing thread it really is a phenomenal performance from Whittaker (and it is sad but whenever I think of Forrest Whittaker, Good Morning Vietnam is still the first thing that comes to mind for me).

Now that the nominations are out, I get to do my best to cram as many in as possible. Except for the documentaries, foreign films, and shorts. I'm resigned to not seeing most of those for quite a while.

Babel - Can't say that I'm really interested based on what I've seen but this will have to go to the top of the list.

Black Dahlia - Barely even remember what this is.

Flags from Our Fathers/Letters from Iwo Jima - Probably won't get to them, just feel kind of stroked out on meaningful WWII movies. Though I do love the idea of making two movies from the same event on opposite sides.

Half Nelson - I am confident that in 20 years we'll speak of Ryan Gosling the way we do Robert De Niro. Since I believe it is on DVD I'll pick this one up but the topic isn't of much interest.

Little Children - All through December while I was seeing great film after great film this one was always #2 on the list when looking at my options. I believe it is still playing at the closest Landmark theater so I'll try to get over there before the weekend in case I lose the opportunity.

Marie Antoinette - Really don't want to see it so I probably won't.

Monster House - Since I believe it is on DVD, I'm sure I'll see it. Hard to imagine it coming out ahead of Cars or Happy Feet though (and between the two my nod goes to Happy Feet).

Notes on a Scandal - Probably the best chance of seeing since Lani is interested as well.

The Pursuit of Happyness - I have negative interest in this for some reason. 50% because of the stupidness of the title and 50% because it just feels like a manipulative piece of schlock.

Wow, shorter list than most years. Maybe I'll even have time to chase down some of the docs or foreign films.


Categories where I've seen all movies and can make fully informed choice:

Visual Effects: Pirates of the Caribbean. Hands down. Regardless of whether you liked the movie, Davy Jones and crew trump anything in Superman Returns and Poseidon.

Best Song: Honestly, I have no recollection of a song in An Inconvenient Truth. So I'll go with one of the Dreamgirls songs.

Make Up: Pan's Labyrinth. It is weird that Click will be able to advertise itself as Oscar nominated but putting Adam Sandler in a fat suit and aging make-up doesn't cut it. Apocolypto is worthy, but I still go with Pan's Labyrinth.

Art Direction: One of those categories where I'm really not sure what is being rewarded. So I'll go with Dreamgirls.


Undeserving Nominations

Leonardo DiCaprio (Actor) for Blood Diamond. I would have rolled with his The Departed performance but other than the good accent just didn't see anything of interest in Blood Diamond, either from him or the movie as a whole.

Djimon Hounsou (Supporting Actor) for Blood Diamond - See Leo.

Eddie Murphy (Supporting Actor) for Dreamgirls - I loved Dreamgirls, but don't think Murphy was anything special. I'd guess he's getting accolades for not being awful as many would expect.

Meryl Streep (Actress) for The Devil Wears Prada - I think this is a reflexive move. Streep would get nominated for brushing her teeth if caught on film. Pedestrian movie, pedestrian performance.

The Queen (Costume Design) - I fail to see anything remarkable in the costuming of this movie. Is there some special merit in guessing what the Queen's nightclothes look like?

Borat (Adapted Screenplay) - I know that there is still writing involved. But for a movie form that glories in the unscripted this just seems silly.

[LSPoorEeyorick]

Black Dahlia = worst movie we saw this year! So bad. I said, at the time, it was "amateur hour with great makeup and hair." Cinematography? Not deserving.

I agree that Borat's writing nom is pushing it... but they deserve it for that first scene alone.

I thought Honsou was stronger that DiCaprio in Blood Diamond. (Better part, too.) Though my huge problem with that movie was that whenever it slowed down to talk, it became like trudging through muck. I preferred watching them actually trudge through muck instead.

[Bornieo: Fully Loaded]

Yeah, I guess I got 4 out of 5, with Iwojima switched with Flags. I thought for sure the two would cancel each other out.

I like how they threw United 93 a bone. The academy always does for some films and people. That stands out for Director for me, even though it seems Scorcese is due his award - more for his body of work that for The Departed I am sure.

Very happy that Peter O Toole is nominated. Haven't seen the film but after his speach previously about wanting to win in the race, it would be picture perfect if he won this year.

I think the reason DeCaprio got the nom for Blood Diamond was for the accent. That happens alot and most wins/nomination happen when a they have accents or are "challenged" (Rainman, Philadelphia, Forest Gump, etc.)

Very happy for Little Miss Sunshine - its deserved. Alan Arkin SHOULD win this year and I hope that happends. Again, more so for this role, but also for tons of great roles over the years. I think Toni Collete deserves the nom more than the little miss, but...

All around a fairly satifying lineup.

[LSPoorEeyorick]

See, I think DiCaprio got the nom for Blood Diamond because Departed was subpar. (But that's just me, and Tom, and I think Steve, and apparently nobody else on the face of the planet.)

I was 4 for 5 too, but I thought my chance was on Iwo Jima, not Dreamgirls. (Whoops.)

I'm totally excited to see Venus. Anyone coming with us?

[Alex]

DiCaprio wasn't up for best actor with The Departed. Warner Bros. submitted him in the Best Supporting Actor category to avoid him splitting the vote with himself in Best Actor (both The Departed and Blood Diamond are WB).

So to some degree voters weren't given a true choice. I think Best Actor was just less crowded so people who wanted to vote for DiCaprio, did it there.

[Snowflake]

Well, I was pleased to see that The Illusionist won a nod for cinematography. I thought it was gorgeously filmed, but a pedestrian and slow movie.

I agree with Alex (I think) Streep brings up the level of any movie she is in, but in no way (to my mind) deserved a Golden Globe nor an Academy Award for this piece of fluff.

The Academy has never had a history for picking the best picture of the year, but heck, I'm not an Academy voting member, so my vote don't count. I wonder if they will go with Babel?

Litle Miss Sunshine, I want Alan Arkin to win, very much.

I'm planning the Oscar night menu now.