Dumbest Prediction of the Day

[Kevy Baby]

So I hear a teaser about an upcoming news story. Seems scientists have finally been able to make a scientific prediction about the next earthquake in California.

Imagine my disappointment when I heard this (and I am paraphrasing):

Somewhere in California, a 6.7 magnitude earthquake has a better than 99 percent chance of striking sometime in the next 30 years.
That's right kids. They have pinpointed his sucker down to the entire state sometime between now and the year 2038.

Wow: they really went out on a limb on this one. This is almost like predicting that Britney Spears will appear in a news story sometime before Christmas. :rolleyes:

One story (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/04/14/BAGC104TGE.DTL) on the subject.

[alphabassettgrrl]

Animals are good at predicting earthquakes, at least on a short-term basis. Before Northridge, the mice in my s-i-l's walls were going crazy. Dogs and cats run away from home I'm told. Haven't had a major quake since we've been in this house and had pets. They haven't reacted before any of the minor ones we've had.

[Chernabog]

I predict that I will take a crap some time within the next 72 hours. I R cutting edge science person! Thingy!

[Not Afraid]

I predict I will take a nap sometime within the next hour.

[sleepyjeff]

The scientists used complex analytical tools that they have developed over many years and new computer programs to arrive at their new forecasts of earthquake magnitudes and the faults they may rupture.

well, it's a very good thing they have all of these "complex anayltical tools" at their disposal otherwise they may have not been able to make this prediction:rolleyes:

[JWBear]

I’m almost hoping for a good shaker soon so that our obnoxious white trash neighbors will get all panicky and flee back to Tennessee.

[wendybeth]

They've been having a strange swarm of earthquakes in Oregon that have scientists kind of baffled- i couldn't help but wonder if maybe the whole Pacific Rim is acting up. I'm thinking odds are very good that you'll be rid of your neighbors a lot sooner than 30 years, JW.

[Chernabog]

I’m almost hoping for a good shaker soon so that our obnoxious white trash neighbors will get all panicky and flee back to Tennessee.

Me too, but my next door neighbors need to flee back to Mexico. Today the two of them were on the steps outside, watching their fugly brat devil child run around on his scooter, glaring at me while I went up and down to get my laundry. I smiled at them and they furrowed their brow (these are the people who once pounded on my wall and yelled "faggot" at me). Real cute characters.

And my building was built in 1952, so who knows on that end either how it'll hold up in a quake. I hope I'm outside when it happens.

[Capt Jack]

mine was built originally in 1908 (and expanded many times since then). my only hope is if it survived that many already, whats one more?

[Kevy Baby]

The straw that broke the camel's back?

[JWBear]

Our house was built in 1932, and survived the 1933 Long Beach earthquake (and all others since) just fine.

[Alex]

I was curious, since they did specify above 6.7 if it really was a stupid prediction (well, the prediction isn't stupid as much as the response to it, I'm sure the scientists involved included all appropriate disclaimers).

There have been 10 6.7 or higher earthquakes in California (or nearshore waters) in the last century.

The first was 1918, a 6.9 centered in San Jacinto. Since then the longest stretch without a 6.7 earthquake in California was 28 years between a 7.7 in Kern County (http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=%2B+35++0.+++-119++1.00&jsv=107&ie=UTF8&ll=34.990629,-119.072571&spn=0.393772,0.6427&t=h&z=11) and a 7.2 in 1980 off shore from Eureka.

Four were experienced between 1989 and 1994 (Loma Prieta, off the Mendocino coast, Landers, and Northridge) and we are now 13 years since the last one.

Looking through the longer historical data it looks like the longest stretch was from 1873 (Crescent City -- though Owens Valley had three in 1872) to 1906 (you've probably heard of that one) or 33 years.

So I won't go so far as saying 'dumb prediction' but certainly obvious.

I'm more interested that they say 30% chance of a 6.7+ on the Hayward Fault, which would probably be just about the worst case scenario for California.

[Morrigoon]

I've always held that we average a "major" quake in SoCal every 20 years or so.

Sylmar: 1972
Northridge: 1994

I predict the next 6+ quake will happen in the next 13 years :)

[Moonliner]

I was curious, since they did specify above 6.7 if it really was a stupid prediction (well, the prediction isn't stupid as much as the response to it, I'm sure the scientists involved included all appropriate disclaimers).

There have been 10 6.7 or higher earthquakes in California (or nearshore waters) in the last century.

The first was 1918, a 6.9 centered in San Jacinto. Since then the longest stretch without a 6.7 earthquake in California was 28 years between a 7.7 in Kern County (http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=%2B+35++0.+++-119++1.00&jsv=107&ie=UTF8&ll=34.990629,-119.072571&spn=0.393772,0.6427&t=h&z=11) and a 7.2 in 1980 off shore from Eureka.

Four were experienced between 1989 and 1994 (Loma Prieta, off the Mendocino coast, Landers, and Northridge) and we are now 13 years since the last one.

Looking through the longer historical data it looks like the longest stretch was from 1873 (Crescent City -- though Owens Valley had three in 1872) to 1906 (you've probably heard of that one) or 33 years.

So I won't go so far as saying 'dumb prediction' but certainly obvious.

I'm more interested that they say 30% chance of a 6.7+ on the Hayward Fault, which would probably be just about the worst case scenario for California.


I flipped a coin ten times. Four times it landed heads. Six times it landed tails. So I guess there is a 60% chance of getting tails on any future toss.

[Alex]

That's not at all what I'm saying. I understand the statistical analysis is much more complex.

I was just looking to see if, from a completely pop. sci. point of view there is anything surprising about this story. And since over the last 300 years there has only been one period longer than 30 years without a 6.7+ earthquake in California, there really isn't (especially since the actual prediction is within 47 years which is far longer than any previous period).

Scientifically, the big new is that the certainty is 99.7% (or whatever it was) rather than 91.3 or something. But from a general news reading culture that is a meaningless distinctions.

[tracilicious]

I'm hoping that the next one is big enough to give Arizona some nice beaches.


(I'm kidding!!!)

[Kevy Baby]

You want Texas and New Mexico to slide into the Gulf of Mexico?

[alphabassettgrrl]

You want Texas and New Mexico to slide into the Gulf of Mexico?

Works for me!

[JWBear]

There was a 5.2 earthquake (http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/04/18/illinois.earthquake/index.html?iref=topnews) in Illinois this morning.