Republican National Convention '08

[Snowflake]

Don't get cocky... On this date 4 years ago, Kerry was way ahead of Bush....

Man, I gotta stay out of the political threads! Stop me now.

JW, your avatar is so hot, please post somewhere else so I can drool in a more pleasant environment. ;)

[sleepyjeff]

Don't get cocky... On this date 4 years ago, Kerry was way ahead of Bush....

Exactly....McCain is doing better than Bush at this point in time.

Kerry was up on Bush 273 to 233 on Sept 12 of 2004

but...

Yesterday, Sept 11, Obama was up on McCain by nearly the exact same amount{273 to 238}

So you see, Obama is doing exactly as well as Kerry.....McCain is doing slightly better than Bush ....thus, my cockiness:D

[JWBear]

You can also look at it this way: In 2004, between this date and the election, the two candidates positions reversed.....

[JWBear]

Man, I gotta stay out of the political threads! Stop me now.

JW, your avatar is so hot, please post somewhere else so I can drool in a more pleasant environment. ;)

He is, sin't he... :D

[sleepyjeff]

You can also look at it this way: In 2004, between this date and the election, the two candidates positions reversed.....

I see what your saying.....my line of reasoning is a little different(naturlich):)

[Cadaverous Pallor]

There are many different sites with maps out there and they're all different

[sleepyjeff]

There are many different sites with maps out there and they're all different

That's true, but this one has been touted the most here on LoT; maybe that's because up until today it had Obama with pretty big leads. It's author is a Democrat and he uses data from several reputable polling services so I am confident that this isn't right wing propaganda.

There are other sites though:

This one still has Obama with a slight lead:
http://www.electionprojection.com/president08.shtml

This one has McCain with an even bigger lead:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/make-your-own-north-carolina-prediction.html



And this one is based on people who bet on these kind of things...it has McCain with the narrowest of leads:
http://electoralmap.net/index.php

[Stan4dSteph]

How do those polls account for the large amount of younger voters who seem to make up Obama's demographic? Pollsters can't call cell phones.

[Gemini Cricket]

How do those polls account for the large amount of younger voters who seem to make up Obama's demographic? Pollsters can't call cell phones.
I don't know if that will have any affect on the polls. With Kerry, it did not. I remember people thinking that he had it in the bag because of the un-polled cellphone users.

[BarTopDancer]

I don't know if that will have any affect on the polls. With Kerry, it did not. I remember people thinking that he had it in the bag because of the un-polled cellphone users.

It may this time. More people, more young voters don't have landlines then didn't back when Kerry was running.

[sleepyjeff]

How do those polls account for the large amount of younger voters who seem to make up Obama's demographic? Pollsters can't call cell phones.

Yes, they can....they just can't auto dial them. Most of the larger polling companines do call a small number of cell customers to get a feel for where they may be voting(kind of a poll within a poll) then assign that number to represent the percentage(7.9%+/-) of registered voters who only use cell phones.

The Pew research center has a study on the whole thing but I don't have a link.

[Alex]

Yes, all of the polling companies attempt to adjust for the cell phone issue (only small polls can even try to completely include cell phones since not using auto dialers makes sample size for large polls extremely difficult).

But in the end all they can do is look at past behavior and make educated guesses to extrapolate. The same issue exists in the "likely voter" models they use since generally they discount youth voting to a degree since the under 25 crowd never votes at the rate they say they will.

Pollsters though have to try to take into account, though, that through the primary season young voters deviated strongly from past models. Will that continue or will the actual election regress to the mean.

So there are a lot of issues that could invalidate the polling. The polling companies are aware of them and try to correct for them. Sometimes they do well and sometimes they don't. Sometimes they just get unlucky (good model produces an outlier) or get lucky (bad models can still give what turns out to have been right).