2009 NCAA LoT Bracket Challenge

[Moonliner]

I took the liberty of setting up an online NCAA bracket program so that we can have a Lot bracket pool.

There is no cost involved, and the only prize is bragging rights.

You can sign up at: http://www.pickhoops.com/lot

Feel free to use screen names. The password for the group is: bacon

Get your brackets in before Thursday if you want to play.

[BDBopper]

I'm in! :snap:

[Ghoulish Delight]

My entirely uninformed picks are in. UCLA FTW! (and just to warn you, the last time I made entirely uninformed picks, with UCLA as champs, I won the pool, so clearly I'm some sort of savant).

[Alex]

I don't know if I will sign up but all my money is on Portland State.

[Moonliner]

Be sure to get your picks in today. Tomorrow is the cutoff.

[lashbear]

I'm all signed up. :eek:

[Moonliner]

I'm all signed up. :eek:

This should be interesting....

[Moonliner]

ESPN has Obama's bracket picks (http://games.espn.go.com/tcmen/entry?entryID=2813746)so I added them to our pool.



Ps: Knowing President Obama's picks I was also able to enter a bracket on behalf of our own Scaeagles who is currently MIA. I know he would be against everything "Obama", so I just reversed the Presidents picks. Go UCLA! You can do it!

[cirquelover]

I don't know if I will sign up but all my money is on Portland State.


I am in total agreement with Alex. Hey wait, that seems to be happening a lot lately..........scary!

[Alex]

In a vein with whether the Tonight Show is beneath the dignity of the president, I will be a pissed off if Obama is actually aware enough of college basketball this season to be making anything other than nearly random selections.

But what's really funny to me is that I just picked a third-rate university name at random (no offense to PSU students and alumni) and had no idea they were actually in the tournament.

[Moonliner]

In a vein with whether the Tonight Show is beneath the dignity of the president, I will be a pissed off if Obama is actually aware enough of college basketball this season to be making anything other than nearly random selections.


All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy....

I don't begrudge the POTUS a little R&R time, even during a global meltdown. We all need some downtime be it posting on Internet message boards or following college hoops. It makes us stronger in the long run.

[Alex]

Oh, I don't mind him watching enough basketball that he could know about a team or two.

I just question whether he could legitimately have had enough over the last couple of months to have any personal insight beyond that. If his picks come (as it does for most people) from watching an hour of SportsCenter every day (or, more likely, from an aide telling him what to pick) then it's cool.

[Ghoulish Delight]

Well, it doesn't answer whether or not he formed his analysis by watching the whole season or by reading ESPN.com for a an hour, but here's video of Obama making his picks (http://unc.fandome.com/video/110434/Baracketology-President-Obama-Fills-Out-His-March-Madness-Bracket/?q=c).

[BarTopDancer]

San Jose Sharks for the Cup!



Oh wait. Wrong sport. How come there is never a hockey thread around here.

/runs away sobbing.

[BDBopper]

San Jose Sharks for the Cup!



Oh wait. Wrong sport. How come there is never a hockey thread around here.

/runs away sobbing.

There's no crying in Hockey! (Oh wait...I am now remembering to the contrary. Oops))

[Moonliner]

San Jose Sharks for the Cup!



Oh wait. Wrong sport. How come there is never a hockey thread around here.

/runs away sobbing.

I really should start one. It's the only pro sport that DC does not currently suck at.

[Drince88]

Since it wouldn't let me use my screen name, I used the 'definition' of my screen name - (Old English Princess) and did my traditional "I have no idea, but let's favor Pac 10, Northwest, and high seeded teams" method of picking. And throw in a couple other twists for the heck of it!

[Moonliner]

Last call for brackets, get your brackets here! Brackets!

So far we have brackets from:

BDBopper, Drince88, Lashbear, Deebs, SacTown, GD, Obama, the Unauthorized Scaeagles and my own.

[Moonliner]

Interesting tidbit...


March Madness bracket odds are over 9-quintillion-to-1

The odds of you picking a perfect March Madness bracket are not just horrible, they're almost impossibly bad. You have a substantially better shot at winning the Powerball than you do at picking a perfect bracket.

There are a total of 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 possible bracket outcomes, making the odds of a perfect bracket over 9.2-quintillion-to-1. In fact, the odds are so bad that, according to RJ Bell at Pregame.com, if every individual alive in the world completed a bracket, the odds are a billion-to-one against any of them being perfect.



That seems a bit high to me...

Let's see there are 32 First round games, so the possible combinations in the first round is only 2 ^ number of games or 2^ 32nd

2^32= 4,294,967,296

Now for the second round

For each one of the 4,294,967,296 possible first round outcomes there are an addational 2^16 possible second round outcomes..... Errr, never mind....

[Moonliner]

And we're off and running

Drince88 jumps off to an early lead with a 3-0 record and Deebs is falling behind the pack with an 0-3 record.

[Alex]

That seems a bit high to me...


It is. That number assumes that each game is a coin flip. They're not (or it would suggest that the seeders have no idea what they're going).

In the last two tournaments, there were 122 in which differently seeded teams played each other. The higher seeded team won 99 of them.

Of course, the odds are still really, really small.

[Ghoulish Delight]

I'm 3-1, 50-50 on my first 2 upset picks (admittedly, they were both #8 vs. #9 games). w00t

[Moonliner]

It is. That number assumes that each game is a coin flip. They're not (or it would suggest that the seeders have no idea what they're going).

In the last two tournaments, there were 122 in which differently seeded teams played each other. The higher seeded team won 99 of them.

Of course, the odds are still really, really small.

The question was how many possible combinations, not probable so I think in this case the number is accurate.

[Ghoulish Delight]

By stating it in terms of odds, they implied probability.

[Alex]

Thinking about the odds some more and maybe not quite so small as I thought.

Let's say you accurately predicted for the 2007 tournament that there would be 11 games out of the 63 that would not be accurately predicted by the seeding. What then are the odds of you correctly picking the correct eleven games? Assuming upsets are randomly distributed (which they're not, 9 beating 8 is much more likely than 16 beating 1) you'd have a 1 in 615 trillion chance of being right on picking all 11 upsets. Still really small but 10,000 times better than treating everything like a coin flip.

Considering that the range in actual upsets seen is probably pretty consistent, adding in the need to correctly predict that it will be 11 upsets probably doesn't add more than a degree or two of magnitude. This would be counteracted by the fact that the upsets aren't randomly distributed across all 63 game.

[Alex]

The question was how many possible combinations, not probable so I think in this case the number is accurate.

Ok, yes, the possible number of outcomes given was correct. I thought you were talking about the odds seeming wrong. They are (in the real world).

ETA: Though now that I think about it, I think the combinations number is too low by half but maybe I'm missing something. Because of the opening round game that determined the 16 seed for the midwest bracket there are 64 game played.

1 opening round game
15 games in each division
2 final four games
1 Finals game

So that is 2^64 possible outcomes or 18,446,744,073,709,600,000 (18.4 quintillion) outcomes. 9.2 quintillion is correct without the opening round game.

[Moonliner]

Ok, yes, the possible number of outcomes given was correct. I thought you were talking about the odds seeming wrong. They are (in the real world).

ETA: Though now that I think about it, I think the combinations number is too low by half but maybe I'm missing something. Because of the opening round game that determined the 16 seed for the midwest bracket there are 64 game played.

1 opening round game
15 games in each division
2 final four games
1 Finals game

So that is 2^64 possible outcomes or 18,446,744,073,709,600,000 (18.4 quintillion) outcomes. 9.2 quintillion is correct without the opening round game.

That's for the entire tournament. The brackets don't typically include the play in game.

[Alex]

Ok, then it's correct. I don't pay enough attention to know if people had to pick that one too.

Do we have any sense of how often people pick perfect brackets? Even the reduced odds I mention above (assuming random distribution of upsets) make it unlikely that it has ever happened.

[wendybeth]

Hey, the team that I'm not going to name or root for beat Akron! They owe me for this one- I totally ignored the game, even though it was on in the break room.

[Moonliner]

The early results are in:

Drince88 takes the early lead with 17 correct picks so far.

Ghoulish Delight, Sactown, and myself are tied for 2nd at 15 each

Next up Lashbear, Obama and BDBopper at 14 games

In the cellar we have Deebs and the Unauthorized Scaeagels with 10 and 6 correct picks respectively.

[Deebs]

In the cellar we have Deebs and the Unauthorized Scaeagels with 10 and 6 correct picks respectively.

I'm in the cellar with Scaegles?? :blush: At least I am beating him.

[Kevy Baby]

While I have not been involved in this thread, I thought of y'all when I saw this today:

http://assets.comics.com/dyn/str_strip/000000000/00000000/0000000/200000/70000/6000/800/276880/276880.full.gif

[scaeagles]

I'm in the cellar with Scaegles?? :blush: At least I am beating him.

I'm a bit late to this thread, I see.

Please read the UNAUTHORIZED Scaeagles. I was out of town (as stated in another thread) and did not make any entries. Whomever did that must have been pretty amused with themselves, though.

Jerk. :)

[Moonliner]

I explained your picks in this post.

ESPN has Obama's bracket picks (http://games.espn.go.com/tcmen/entry?entryID=2813746)so I added them to our pool.



Ps: Knowing President Obama's picks I was also able to enter a bracket on behalf of our own Scaeagles who is currently MIA. I know he would be against everything "Obama", so I just reversed the Presidents picks. Go UCLA! You can do it!

I'm a bit late to this thread, I see.

Please read the UNAUTHORIZED Scaeagles. I was out of town (as stated in another thread) and did not make any entries. Whomever did that must have been pretty amused with themselves, though.

Jerk. :)

[scaeagles]

Well, I'm doing OK in my office pool. Had 26 of the 32. It's also set up to give bonus points for getting all teams in a region correct, and I got all 8 in the west. So things are looking good for me early on, as I still have 14 of the 16 that will be left after Sunday alove as of now (having picked Wake and FSU, but the upsets are what make the tournament great).

[Ghoulish Delight]

I slipped a little today, but all of my 2nd round picks are still in it, so I like my odds.

[Alex]

Despite an initial setback my faith is still in PSU.

[scaeagles]

Some incredible games to end the first round. Wow.

[Moonliner]

Well, I'm doing OK in my office pool. Had 26 of the 32. It's also set up to give bonus points for getting all teams in a region correct, and I got all 8 in the west. So things are looking good for me early on, as I still have 14 of the 16 that will be left after Sunday alove as of now (having picked Wake and FSU, but the upsets are what make the tournament great).

If you would like, I could edit your "unofficial" bracket to make it official. Just let me know your picks...

[scaeagles]

OK....I'll send you a PM in a bit. Thanks!

[Moonliner]

And we have an updated score list....

Cocks's of the Walk
Scaeagles (Official) 26
Drinc88 25

Staying Alive
SacTown 23
BDBopper 22

Not Dead Yet
Ghoulish Delight 21
Lashbear 21
MoonLiner 21

Losing Ground
Obama Picks 19
Deebs 17

[Ghoulish Delight]

Pffft. Anyone can win by making the right picks in the first round. It's the 2nd round where the money is made. I have you all right where I want you.

[scaeagles]

And if you had UCLA, you aren't making any money right now. Down to Nova 28-11 10 minutes in? Yikes!:p

[Deebs]

Losing Ground
Obama Picks 19
Deebs 17

I'm ok with this. I know nothing about basketball and though I am at the bottom of the list, the company is distinguished,

[scaeagles]

I bet Obama could beat the best the special olympics has to offer in terms of picking teams. Oh wait....that was inappropriate. :)

(for those that may not know that was in reference to Obama on Leno saying he bowled like he was in the special olympics.)

Why is UCLA like a 25 letter alphabet? Cause they have no D! Bwahahahaha! I have nothing against UCLA personally (in fact, I rather like them....Howland used to coach my alma mater of Northern Arizona University), but they couldn't stop me daughter's HS girls team right now.

[wendybeth]

Sweet Sixteen-bound for The Team Who Shall Not Be Named!

(Not that I'm rooting for them, whoever they are).

[scaeagles]

The team that the not to be named team was playing against sure gacked. They were celebrating the tying basket while the not to be named team was dribbling down the court for an easy basket for the win!

[Moonliner]

It's moving day, some go up and some go down...

All alone at the top
Scaeagles (Official) 52

Picking up speed
Ghoulish Delight 51

Keeping in the hunt
Rob Lashbear 47
Moon Liner 47
Obama Picks 47

Not looking so good
OldEnglish Princess 45
Sac Town 45
Brian Donegan 44
Deebs Ballerina 39
Scaeagles 15

[scaeagles]

I still have 13 of 16 alive. Can you post who has how many left?

I'm sure this is not uncommon since the #1 and #2 teams are all still alive, but I still have all 8 final 8 teams in it. The only of those I didn't pick was Michigan State (I had USC in beating Michigan State today....almost pulled it off). I have Kansas going to that spot.

Who would have thought the only Pac 10 team remaining would be Arizona?

[Alex]

What would the score be if you just picked based solely on seeding (in other words, how are the selection committee doing)?

[scaeagles]

The selection committee would have 14 of 16 remaining. The only teams still alive that are not a 1, 2, 3, or 4 seed are Arizona and Purdue. And Purdue is a 5 seed, so they aren't that far off.

It doesn't get exceptionally difficult until now. There are always the upsets that happen early, but by the round of 16 it isn't too hard. Once you get the 1 through 4 seeds playing against each other, though, it becomes pretty challenging.

[Moonliner]

What would the score be if you just picked based solely on seeding (in other words, how are the selection committee doing)?
A seeding bracket would Currently be in third place with 36 correct games

I still have 13 of 16 alive. Can you post who has how many left?


Player/ Rank/ Points/ Possible points/ Correct games/ Possible Games
Scaeagles (Official) 1/ 52/ 112/ 39/ 54
Ghoulish Delight 2/ 51/ 89/ 36/ 47
Seeding 3/ 50/ 110/ 36/ 51
Lashbear 4/ 47/ 107/ 34/ 49
MoonLiner 4/ 47/ 104/ 34/ 48
Obama 6/ 47/ 107/ 33/ 48
Drince88 7/ 45/ 99/ 35/ 48
Sac Town 8/ 45/ 105/ 34/ 49
BDBopper 9/ 44/ 104/ 33/ 48
Deebs 10/ 39/ 99/ 28/ 43

[BDBopper]

Hooray! I'm a loser! :)

[Ghoulish Delight]

It should be noted that had I not, due to pointless childhood loyalty, picked UCLA to go all the way, but made those picks based on the same entirely uninformed criteria I used to pick the rest of the brackets...I'd be winning. All without having watched single minute of a game this season, nor any sportcenter coverage.

Savant, I tells ya'!

[SacTown Chronic]

More like SuckTown this year, am I right?

[scaeagles]

Back on tonight! Woo-hoo!

UConn v. Purdue - UConn in a blowout (> 15)
Pitt v. Xavier - Pitt by 8
Memphis v. Missouri - Memphis in a blowout (> 15)
Duke v/ Villanova - Toss up even thuogh I have Duke in my bracket.

Other predictions?

[Moonliner]

Back on tonight! Woo-hoo!

UConn v. Purdue - UConn in a blowout (> 15) CHECK
Pitt v. Xavier - Pitt by 8 NOOO!!!!
Memphis v. Missouri - Memphis in a blowout (> 15) CHECK
Duke v/ Villanova - Toss up even thuogh I have Duke in my bracket. DUKE

Other predictions?

It looks like I'll be rooting for Pitt to collapse so I can pick up a few points on you.

[Ghoulish Delight]

And it looks like I'll be a fan of Xavier, Mich St., Nova, and the Orangemen.

[Ghoulish Delight]

Correction, I have no stake in Xavier winning. Go Pitt!

[Moonliner]

Correction, I have no stake in Xavier winning. Go Pitt!

Bite me.

[Ghoulish Delight]

:D I have powers.

[Ghoulish Delight]

Go Nova!

[scaeagles]

Well, I sure sucked it up today. Nova made Duke look like sissies and while Memphis is only down 8 with a slim shot with a minute left, they've given up 96 pts! Yikes.

Shows you what I know. Jack freakin' squat. The game I thought would be the best tonight was the biggest blowout.

[Ghoulish Delight]

Powers I tells ya!!

Now it's up to 'cuse and MichSt.

So lemme just say...

Go Syracuse!

Go Michigan State!

[CoasterMatt]

Go Dodgers!!

[Moonliner]

It looks like the only power I have is to fall faster than Gravity.....

Here is the updated scoreboard with our new fearless leader: The seeding pool.

Player/Rank/Points/Possible Points/Correct Games/Upset Risk %/Possible Game
Seeding 1 59 107 39 1.6 50
Scaeagles (Official) 2 58 102 41 5.6 51
Ghoulish Delight 3 57 82 38 14.3 45
Lashbear 4 53 101 36 1.1 47
Obama Picks 5 53 97 35 4.9 45
Sac Town 6 51 80 36 12.4 44
MoonLiner 7 50 94 35 12.9 45
BDBopper 7 50 70 35 18.0 41
Drince88 9 48 80 36 30.7 43
Deebs 10 48 77 31 24.3 39
Scaeagles 11 15 15 14 87.0 14

[Ghoulish Delight]

Wow, as I look at my brackets, it really does come down to Mich. St and Syracuse for me. And Duke. I need Duke to knock off Pitt (Go Duke!). Then I need Michigan St. and Syracuse to roll through to the final 4. If that happens I win.

ETA: Well, I beat scaeagles in that scenario at least. Haven't run through and see if that keeps me ahead of everyone else.

[Moonliner]

Wow, as I look at my brackets, it really does come down to Mich. St and Syracuse for me. And Duke. I need Duke to knock off Pitt (Go Duke!). Then I need Michigan St. and Syracuse to roll through to the final 4. If that happens I win.

ETA: Well, I beat scaeagles in that scenario at least. Haven't run through and see if that keeps me ahead of everyone else.

Why do I suddenly feel a special affinity for Pitt?

[scaeagles]

Umm....Duke is going to have a hard time knocking off Pitt considering they got annihilated and embarrassed by Villanova last night.

[Ghoulish Delight]

Err, yeah, Villanova. I just need Pitt out.

[Ghoulish Delight]

Ahem, I said....

Go Syracuse!

:(

[scaeagles]

Were you cheering for Arizona, too? Seems like your powers are a bit overrated.

[Ghoulish Delight]

Were you cheering for Arizona, too? Seems like your powers are a bit overrated.
No, I didn't mind picking up a point from Louisville this round, I was going to wait for Michigan St. to knock them out.

My odds seem to be slightly lower than they were earlier today.

[Drince88]

Wooo Hoo - of all the real brackets - I win!

(This is like Golf scoring, right?)

[scaeagles]

Well, if UNC loses, this will be the fiorst time ever in my bracket picking history that I will not have any final four teams correct. I think I have to pull for Oklahoma so that I know there's no way I can do worse next year.

Man, I sucked this year!

[Moonliner]

Player/Rank/Points/Possible Points/Correct Games/Upset Risk %/Possible Game

Seeding 1 79 94 45 1.6 47

You must be kidding me
Lashbear 2 73 88 42 1.1 44
He has final 2: Conn vs Pitt with Con taking it all.

Scaeagles (Official) 3 71 76 45 5.6 46
Ghoulish Delight 4 70 70 42 14.3 42
MoonLiner 5 67 82 40 12.9 42
Obama Picks 6 66 81 39 4.9 41
Deebs 7 65 70 36 24.3 37
SacTown 8 60 60 39 12.4 39
BDBopper 9 59 59 38 18.0 38
Drince 10 51 51 37 30.7 37
Scaeagles 11 15 15 14 87.0 14

[Ghoulish Delight]

Beat by a ferner and just 1 point ahead of a guy taking nothing but SWAGs. Banner day for scaeagles. :D

[scaeagles]

To make things worse, there is now no way I can pass my 15 year old daughter. Lost to a 15 year old girl. Sigh.

[lashbear]

Bwah hah hah !!! :evil:

[Ghoulish Delight]

Wow. That dunk just literally shook the building.

[Strangler Lewis]

I like the idea of the tournament, but that first game was ugly. New York Knick scrub time ugly. Traditional USA amateur men's hockey ugly.

NC will win handily, and then Hansbrough will finally be able to take his rightful place in the shadows of some NBA team.

[Moonliner]

Player/Rank/Points/Possible Points/Correct Games/Upset Risk %/Possible Game
Seeding 1 84 94 46 1.6 47

Beating back the demon from across the ocean
Scaeagles 2 76 76 46 5.6 46

The Rest of the pack
Lashbear 3 73 73 42 1.1 42
Moon Liner 4 72 82 41 12.9 42
Obama Picks 5 71 81 40 4.9 41
Ghoulish Delight 6 70 70 42 14.3 42
Deebs 7 65 65 36 24.3 36
SacTown 8 60 60 39 12.4 39
BDBopper 9 59 59 38 18.0 38
Drince88 10 51 51 37 30.7 37


Numerically it's over. Congratulation to Scaegales! Winner!

The battle is on for second place, Moonliner Mono E Mono vs the Bear.

[scaeagles]

Wow. I thought I sucked this year. You guys REALLY suck!

[Moonliner]

That's what we like around here. A gracious winner.

Now if you'll excuse me, I'm off to play some poker.

[scaeagles]

I'm not a winner, just less of a loser.

[Alex]

I'm just to see that those people creating the bracket in the first place do seem to know what they're doing. In the future I will just go with seeding.

[blueerica]

While the rest of my bracket was somewhat of a wash, I got Michigan State right. Woo!

[scaeagles]

I'm just to see that those people creating the bracket in the first place do seem to know what they're doing. In the future I will just go with seeding.


I don't know....for the most part, the 1, 2, and 3 seeds can pretty much all beat each other. The fun is trying to figure out the early upsets, and I think I was better than the seeding (or tied with it) after the first round.

I think when it gets to the sweet 16 it's a crap shoot for the most part. I had 2 number one seeds going to the final four, same as the seeding. I just picked the other upsets incorrectly. I would bet there is a high percentage of bracket fillers around the country that got at least 2 to the final four.

[Alex]

I'm sure. And if you did just as well in the late rounds and better in the early rounds, then why are you behind the official bracket?

[scaeagles]

No, no, no....I'm not trying to say I was better. Those guys are professionals but I think for the most part they are guessing in the later rounds as much as the average joe. I had them tied in the early rounds (I realize I said I was either better or had them tied - I looked a little more deeply - the first round I had 26 and so did the bracket makers), but certainly picked incorrectly in the later rounds.

I misspoke when I earlier said I had only two #1 seeds in the final four. I had 3. I had UNC, Pitt, and Louisville going, with UConn losing to Memphis.

I'm not trying to say I did better than the bracket pickers at all. I have in the past, and I'm sure there are many who did this year as well. I would be interested in some kind of percentage in say, the ESPN 5 million person online pool to know how many were better.

[Alex]

Yeah, I'm sure many people did better than the bracket. I'm just saying that since I have no claim to any particular expertise it appears that I'd be fine to just stick with them.

[Ghoulish Delight]

Wow. That dunk just literally shook the building.
This (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-R9h-_drCm4&fmt=18) would be the dunk I was talking about.

[scaeagles]

I saw that one and said "That dude was just posterized!".

[Ghoulish Delight]

Watching it again I realized I didn't even hear the announcer say that the building was shaking. I just noticed the cameras shaking and thought, "Wow, he shook the building."

[lashbear]

Have I won yet?

[Moonliner]

Have I won yet?

Sure we'll go with that....

Congrats.

[scaeagles]

Victory usurper! Bah!