The chair of the county's Republican Party lives behind us and is having yet another fundraiser bbq tonight. Jack the beagle will be out in our yard arrroooooooing at the people on the other side of the fence.

Yes, we can.

All I'm saying is if someone is sitting there thinking, "Oh god, what if Democrats don't keep up the energy to get him elected. Oh god, it's horrible. Oh god, he's going to lose!!" it is liable to become self-fulfilling prophecy.

I'm a believer that, even though California isn't a battle ground state, overall results are moved by large forces. And large forces are created by small elements. Mood matters, the tone of discourse matters. Whether someone in Ohio hears what you or I post individually matters not. But every little statement adds up to something. Every poll result that shows a slip in Obama's standing in the worthless but flashy popular vote adds fuel to the defeatist fire.

Defeatism breeds defeat.

And Brad, I am not disagreeing with you, really. I know this isn't a lock for him, and he will have to fight. And when he fights, all of us have to stand with him, strong and unafraid of scrutiny. There was a reason Barack said in his speech that he is ready for to debate McCain regarding his ability to lead - because it will be a battle, and because it is important he win it.

I think there's a distinction between defeatism and thinking he doesn't necessarily have it in the bag.

I don't agree with iSm. I think a vote is a vote. Yes, there's the whole electoral college thing, but the numbers are still there in the end. How many people voted in California is important even if we're a sure thing. And I wonder how many times people thought not to vote because their state was going to lean one way and then, surprise, it went the other way on Election Day.

There were a ton of things he said in his speech that made me extremely happy. He has a stronger fighting spirit it seems than Kerry. He addressed every single slam that was out there against him and was firm about it.
That made me very excited.

And I think you're misreading positivity for complacency.

And you've got to be kidding about Gore and Kerry. No two blander candidates could have been nominated. No one was excited for them to win. THEY hardly seem excited at their prospects of winning. Some were optimistic that the party was strong, but no one cared whether it was Gore, Kerry, or a plank of wood up there.

I'm not saying Obama's charisma and the excitement around him are guarantees he'll win. I'm saying those are the qualities that are keeping people motivated to see it through. Those are the qualities that have a libretarian ex Rush Limbaugh follower raising funds for him.

Of course he might not win. I just see continually saying, "But he might not win," as wasted energy. You vote for him. You tell people why you're voting for him. You contribute what effort and/or money you can to convince more people to vote for him. You talk about how the country will be better if they vote for him. Those are the things that matter for getting him elected.

At best, talking about "he might lose" does nothing but give you something to worry about. At worst it saps the motivation and momentum he needs to win.

I wonder the same thing. That's why it's important to remind people to go out and vote. When the majority that brings the Dem vote to CA stay home because someone else will vote the other party will win and people will wonder why.

I don't want to at all come of as saying this isn't true for you or your circle at the time. But as someone living on solidly liberal college campuses during both of Clinton's campaigns my feeling is that in that segment of the population Obama is far outshining the impact Clinton had. Among college kids the only politician I noticed having any impact during that era like Obama is now was Wellstone.

Whether that enthusiasm drives that group to actually vote remains to be seen.

But there is definitely also a tinge of the old thing where young people always think their experiences are the best ever. Anybody under 30 really experienced the Clinton campaigns. Kennedy is a essentially political myth to anybody under 60.

No, I'm not kidding about Gore and Kerry. There was a drive back then to help them. People were all revved up to help. But was it because it was that people were afraid of the alternative? Most likely. So, yes, in this case it may be different.

But this gut feeling I have about Obama not winning (although he should) was the same gut feeling I had about both Al and John and it was right around the same time of year 4 and 8 years ago. Heck, I want to be proved wrong.

Doesn't worry sometimes help? Fear of failure motivates people to do better. Positivity alone is just positivity.

I've always found fear of failure a terrible motivator. I'm much more interested in focusing on reaching for success than worrying about what happens if you happen to fail.

There's only one way to succeed at anything, and that's to do it. Either you do it and you succeed, or you do it and you fail. What does it matter if there's a possibility of failure? That doesn't change what needs to be done.