I was thinking about the after-Oscar spin.

If BBM wins, the neocons are going to say that Hollywood is so out of touch with most of America and that movies with gay characters are to blame for low box office numbers. If BBM doesn't win, they will say that Hollywood is rightfully rejecting the 'gay agenda' with the rest of the country.

If any of the others win, they won't say too much.

Mark my words...

:)

More controversy if Brokeback doesn't win, no doubt in my mind.

I was talking with my co-workers at the water cooler (aka Culligan machine) I think it stands to reason that BBM wouldn't have done even close to as well if the characters who played the parts of gay guys were actually gay themselves. It would most likely then have just been considered some sort of "indie" movie.

As far as it stands, I do think that Hollywood *IS* out of touch with America. Not so much the movies that it makes, but rather the actors and actresses. It seems like they make incredibly simplistic and idiotic statements when it comes politics.

I'd actually like to see how many people will be watching the Oscars. They're held on Sunday, so at least they won't be getting any competition from 24. ;)

I, on the other hand, may find myself watching my 24 (TV Show) DVDs -- I watch those so many times! I always notice details that I didn't the first time around. And watching 24 will probably be more entertaining anyhow. I guess I don't really care who wins what. I barely go to the movies anymore because by the time it is all said and done I can rent the movie for less when it comes out, or buy the movie for the same amount as my total cost of visiting the movie theater.

Anyone willing to go on record with a full slate of predictions?

Sure.

Actor - Philip Seymour Hoffman
Supporting Actor - Paul Giamatti
Actress - Reese Witherspoon
Supporting Actress - Michelle Williams
Animated Feature - Howl's Moving Castle
Directing - Ang Lee
Documentary Feature - March of the Penguins
Foreign Language Film - Tsotsi
Picture - Brokeback Mountain
Adapted Screenplay - Brokeback Mountain
Original Screenplay - Crash

I can't bring myself to care about the others (and a couple I haven't seen enough to guess). And those are predictions, not necessarily preferences.

Good idea.

Here are the nominees:

---------------------------
Best Motion Picture of the Year:

Brokeback Mountain (2005) - Diana Ossana, James Schamus

Capote (2005) - Caroline Baron, William Vince, Michael Ohoven

Crash (2004) - Paul Haggis, Cathy Schulman

Good Night, and Good Luck. (2005) - Grant Heslov

Munich (2005) - Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy, Barry Mendel


Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:

Philip Seymour Hoffman for Capote (2005)

Terrence Howard for Hustle & Flow (2005)

Heath Ledger for Brokeback Mountain (2005)

Joaquin Phoenix for Walk the Line (2005)

David Strathairn for Good Night, and Good Luck. (2005)


Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:

Judi Dench for Mrs. Henderson Presents (2005)

Felicity Huffman for Transamerica (2005)

Keira Knightley for Pride & Prejudice (2005)

Charlize Theron for North Country (2005)

Reese Witherspoon for Walk the Line (2005)


Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:

George Clooney for Syriana (2005)

Matt Dillon for Crash (2004)

Paul Giamatti for Cinderella Man (2005)

Jake Gyllenhaal for Brokeback Mountain (2005)

William Hurt for A History of Violence (2005)


Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:

Amy Adams for Junebug (2005)

Catherine Keener for Capote (2005)

Frances McDormand for North Country (2005)

Rachel Weisz for The Constant Gardener (2005)

Michelle Williams for Brokeback Mountain (2005)


Best Achievement in Directing:

George Clooney for Good Night, and Good Luck. (2005)

Paul Haggis for Crash (2004)

Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain (2005)

Bennett Miller for Capote (2005)

Steven Spielberg for Munich (2005)


Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen:

Crash (2004) - Paul Haggis, Robert Moresco

Good Night, and Good Luck. (2005) - George Clooney, Grant Heslov

Match Point (2005) - Woody Allen

The Squid and the Whale (2005) - Noah Baumbach

Syriana (2005) - Stephen Gaghan


Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published:

Brokeback Mountain (2005) - Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana

Capote (2005) - Dan Futterman

The Constant Gardener (2005) - Jeffrey Caine

A History of Violence (2005) - Josh Olson

Munich (2005) - Tony Kushner, Eric Roth


Best Achievement in Cinematography:

Batman Begins (2005) - Wally Pfister

Brokeback Mountain (2005) - Rodrigo Prieto

Good Night, and Good Luck. (2005) - Robert Elswit

Memoirs of a Geisha (2005) - Dion Beebe

The New World (2005) - Emmanuel Lubezki


Best Achievement in Editing:

Cinderella Man (2005) - Daniel P. Hanley, Mike Hill

The Constant Gardener (2005) - Claire Simpson

Crash (2004) - Hughes Winborne

Munich (2005) - Michael Kahn

Walk the Line (2005) - Michael McCusker


Best Achievement in Art Direction:

Good Night, and Good Luck. (2005) - James D. Bissell, Jan Pascale

Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005) - Stuart Craig, Stephanie McMillan

King Kong (2005) - Grant Major, Dan Hennah, Simon Bright

Memoirs of a Geisha (2005) - John Myhre, Gretchen Rau

Pride & Prejudice (2005) - Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer


Best Achievement in Costume Design:

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory (2005) - Gabriella Pescucci

Memoirs of a Geisha (2005) - Colleen Atwood

Mrs. Henderson Presents (2005) - Sandy Powell

Pride & Prejudice (2005) - Jacqueline Durran

Walk the Line (2005) - Arianne Phillips


Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score:

Brokeback Mountain (2005) - Gustavo Santaolalla

The Constant Gardener (2005) - Alberto Iglesias

Memoirs of a Geisha (2005) - John Williams

Munich (2005) - John Williams

Pride & Prejudice (2005) - Dario Marianelli


Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song:

Hustle & Flow (2005) - Jordan Houston, Cedric Coleman, Paul Beauregard ("It's Hard Out Here For a Pimp")

Crash (2004) - Michael Becker, Kathleen York ("In the Deep")

Transamerica (2005) - Dolly Parton ("Travelin' Thru")


Best Achievement in Makeup:

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe (2005) - Howard Berger, Tami Lane

Cinderella Man (2005) - David LeRoy Anderson, Lance Anderson

Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith (2005) - Dave Elsey, Annette Miles


Best Achievement in Sound:

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe (2005) - Terry Porter, Dean A. Zupancic, Tony Johnson

King Kong (2005) - Christopher Boyes, Michael Semanick, Michael Hedges, Hammond Peek

Memoirs of a Geisha (2005) - Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell, Rick Kline, John Pritchett

Walk the Line (2005) - Paul Massey, Doug Hemphill, Peter F. Kurland

War of the Worlds (2005) - Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer, Ron Judkins


Best Achievement in Sound Editing:

King Kong (2005) - Mike Hopkins, Ethan Van der Ryn

Memoirs of a Geisha (2005) - Wylie Stateman

War of the Worlds (2005) - Richard King


Best Achievement in Visual Effects:

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe (2005) - Dean Wright, Bill Westenhofer, Jim Berney, Scott Farrar

King Kong (2005) - Joe Letteri, Brian Van't Hul, Christian Rivers, Richard Taylor

War of the Worlds (2005) - Pablo Helman, Dennis Muren, Randy Dutra, Daniel Sudick


Best Animated Feature Film of the Year:

Corpse Bride (2005) - Tim Burton, Mike Johnson

Hauru no ugoku shiro (2004) - Hayao Miyazaki

Wallace & Gromit in The Curse of the Were-Rabbit (2005) - Steve Box, Nick Park


Best Foreign Language Film of the Year:

Bestia nel cuore, La (2005) - Cristina Comencini (Italy)

Joyeux Noël (2005) - Christian Carion (France)

Paradise Now (2005) - Hany Abu-Assad (Palestine)

Sophie Scholl - Die letzten Tage (2005) - Marc Rothemund (Germany)

Tsotsi (2005) - Gavin Hood (South Africa)


Best Documentary, Features:

Darwin's Nightmare (2004) - Hubert Sauper

Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room (2005) - Alex Gibney, Jason Kliot

Marche de l'empereur, La (2005) - Luc Jacquet, Yves Darondeau

Murderball (2005) - Henry Alex Rubin, Dana Adam Shapiro

Street Fight (2005) - Marshall Curry


Best Documentary, Short Subjects:

God Sleeps in Rwanda (2005) - Kimberlee Acquaro, Stacy Sherman

A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin (2005) - Corinne Marrinan, Eric Simonson

The Life of Kevin Carter (2004) - Dan Krauss

The Mushroom Club (2005) - Steven Okazaki


Best Short Film, Animated:

Badgered (2005) - Sharon Colman

The Moon and the Son (2005) - John Canemaker, Peggy Stern

The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello (2005) - Anthony Lucas

9 (2005) - Shane Acker

One Man Band (2005) - Mark Andrews, Andrew Jimenez


Best Short Film, Live Action:

Ausreißer (2004) - Ulrike Grote

Cashback (2004) - Sean Ellis, Lene Bausager

Síðasti bærinn í dalnum (2004) - Rúnar Rúnarsson, Þórir Snær Sigurjónsson

Our Time Is Up (2004) - Rob Pearlstein, Pia Clemente

Six Shooter (2005) - Martin McDonagh

I'll list my predictions and the ones I'd be voting for, which mostly coincide. We saw everything except a very few (no foreign language, only some of the docs, no docs shorts.)

Actor-Leading
Will win (and would vote for) Philip Seymour Hoffman

Actor-Supporting
Will win- Jake Gyllenhaal
Would vote for- Paul Giamatti

Actress-Leading
Will win (and would vote for) Reese Witherspoon (though Felicity was great)

Actress-Supporting
Will win- Rachel Weisz
Would vote for-Amy Adams

Animated Feature
Will win (and would vote for) Wallace and Gromit

Art Direction
Will win- Memoirs of a Geisha
Would vote for- Good Night and Good Luck

Cinematography
Will win- Brokeback Mountain
Would vote for- Brokeback Mountain

Costume Design
Will win (and would vote for) Memoirs of a Geisha (but why wasn't Capote nominated?)

Directing
Will win (and would vote for) Brokeback Mountain

Documentary Feature
Will win (and would vote for) March of the Penguins (but if a suprise win for Darwin's Nightmare comes along I would not be surprised.)

Film Editing
Will win- Crash
Would vote for- Walk the Line

Foreign Language Film
Will win- Tsotsi
I didn't see any of these, unfortnately.

Makeup
Will win (and would vote for) Narnia

Original Score
Will win (and would vote for) Brokeback Mountain

Original Song
Will win- "In the Deep" from Crash
Would vote for- "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" from Hustle and Flow

Best Picture
Will win- Brokeback Mountain
Would vote for- Capote

Best Short Film, Animated
Will win- The Moon and the Sun
Would vote for- Badgered

Best Short Film, Live Action
Will win (and would vote for) The Runaway (and if Cashback wins I will go on a rampage.)

Best Sound Editing
Will win (and would vote for) King Kong

Best Sound Mixing
Will win (and would vote for) Walk the Line

Best Visual Effects
Will win (and would vote for) King Kong

Best Screenplay, adapted
Will win- Brokeback Mountain
Would vote for- Capote

Best Screenplay, original
Will win- Crash
Would vote for- The Squid and the Whale

Heheh, I was actually going to start an "official" LoT Oscar Pool, prizes and all (with a tip of the hat to Alex Stroup, not that he invented such things) ... but, well, let's just say one of life's sad events intervened.

Everything's cool now, but it's too late to put together any sort of - well - gambling. As of today, Oscar day, I still have not managed to see either Transamerica or Capote. Very bummed about the latter ... but if you don't get me your screener, I can't vote for your movie! (OK, I don't get to vote, but I am reliant on Academy screeners to see most of the nominated films ... I too don't get to the movies as much as I used to, and am perfectly content to wait for the much less expensive DVD experience that seems to be merely months away from theatrical release.)


But out of touch or not, I revel in the fact that this is an Academy Awards "Quality Film" year. This is hardly the first such year, but they are few and far between.

Happy Oscar Night Everyone. :iSm:

The only two categories that I have seen all of the films are the Feature Animation and the Animated Shorts. (Go figure)

I chooose Howel's Moving Castle but I think Wallace and Gromit will win. (And it was really a great film and deservs the oscar.)

Animated shorts - first of all, what happened to the Ceiling Fan film? That was my choice! With that one not on the list, I will pick Badgered as a winner. However, I suspect The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello will be the winner. I actually hope the John Canemaker film doesn't win.

I read Newsweek at the airport and their pick for the animated short was "9"

I would be okay with Jasper Morello winning, but as you know, I loved both Badgered and the Fan and the Flower.

Donna