Lounge of Tomorrow - NCAA Tourney - greatest sporting event in the world

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Moonliner

03-17-2006 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ghoulish Delight

I heard an interesting discussion on NPR the other day. An econimonist feels that he has demonstrated statistically that points-shaving is rather rampant in NCAA basketball. He bases this on 3 observations he made by studying a large sampling of games in which one team was heavily favored over the other from the past few years:

1) The win-loss distribution (not factoring in the spread, just raw wins and losses) was exactly what would be predicted by the odds.

2) There were significantly more wins by the favored team that were decided by just under the point spread than statistically predicted.

3) Conversely, there were significantly fewer wins by the favored team that were decided by just over the point spread.

It's certainly a compelling argument. He was quick to point out that he didn't have enough data from any single team to point fingers and say, "These guys were point shaving!" He can only look in aggregate and conclude that something is definitely skewing the results from their statistical distribution.

So how can I use that to make a killing with my sports bookie?

Alex	03-17-2006 01:57 PM

Based on the title I was assuming this thread would contain talk of both the NCAA basketball tournament and the greatest sporting event in the world.

Since the NCAA basketball tournament involves college basketball it seems clear to me they can't be the same thing. So when do we begin discussing World Cup? What do you think of the efforts Germany is taking to prevent (predominantly British) hooliganism from marring the games?

Alex	03-17-2006 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moonliner

So how can I use that to make a killing with my sports bookie?

It won't make you a killing but it suggests you shouldn't take the favorite when the favored has a huge spread (what defines "heavily favored" I don't know).

Rather than point shaving, though, this statistical analysis, it seems to me, might instead show a psychological skewing in the voting pool (the bettors) as to just how easily a heavily favored team should dominate a lesser team. All the bookies are trying to do is keep an equal number of people on both sides of the decision.

So, if people tend to think "School A is so much better than School B that they should win by 20 points" when in actuality it is very difficult to consistently win by more than 15 points no matter how much better you are, then this might explain bookies setting the spread at 18 and the games more often being on the low side than the high side (rather than equally on both sides as a purely rational system would suggest).

scaeagles

03-17-2006 02:55 PM

I would tend to agree with Alex. Except for the comment about world cup soccer, which borders on heresy to this sports fan, but I do realize that world wide world cup soccer is much more popular.

I am glad, though, that when someone gacks in college basketball, they aren't murdered by fans in their home country, such as the poor Columbian who put the ball in his own net against the US whenever it was. Of course, it was probably not the average fan doing that, but you know what I mean. Internationally, soccer fans are a brutal bunch. Anyway.....back to my agreement with Alex.

Sports book is all about having an equivalent number of betters on both teams. The house takes their cut, and payouts are roughly equivalent. Changing lines are not about changes in the quality of the teams. It is about trying to get more people to bet the other way.

scaeagles

03-17-2006 03:00 PM

Now, back to the serious business of the tournament.

I witnessed what will be a tournament highlight for many years to come - the guy from NW St. hitting a covered fall away three from the corner at the buzzer (well, basically - .5 seconds left) to take a 63-62 lead over Iowa and win the game. That guy will be the new Bryce Drew from Valparaiso (of a similar huge upset a decade or so ago).

What warmed my heart is that this was from a tiny school. Iowa is the Big 10 champion. Billy Packer, eat dirt. The Big 10, one of the 4 or 5 power conferences, just had their champion lose to a mid major that you don't think should have the right to play in the tournament.

I LOVE THIS TIME OF YEAR!

One of the best parts is that during my surgical recovery, I'm supposed to be resting, so I can park my butt guilt free and watch hour after hour after hour yesterday through the rest of the weekend.

scaeagles

03-19-2006 12:29 PM

Boo-ya!

A 13 seed Bradley heading to the Sweet 16. One of the teams the Mr. Billy Packer doesn't think deserves to be in the tournament at all. Also had a 2 seed Tennessee (highly over rated and un deserving of a 2 seed in my mind - even before they lost) lose yesterday.

wendybeth

03-19-2006 02:17 PM

Speaking of small school vs large school, may I bring up the Gonzaga win over Indiana yesterday? Just the day before, one of the Indiana dweebs had been on the news, trash-talking Gonzaga and bragging about how they were going to mop the floor with them.

Revenge is sweet. (As in Sweet 16!)

Prudence

03-19-2006 03:50 PM

Go Gonzaga!

scaeagles

03-19-2006 06:19 PM

And not to be outdone, George Mason University, an 11 seed, dethroned the defending National Champs North Carolina. I love cheering for the underdogs.

Regarding Gonzaga.....tell me about this Adam Morrison kid. I don't know anything about him, but he sure seems a bit full of himself on the court. He may be a great kid, but I've never seen any interviews with him or anything.

I don't know if I can really think of Gonzaga as a small school in terms of basketball. They have become a notional power, rising up out of the underdog status. Duke only has about 6000 or so undergrad students, and I would not think of them as a small school in terms of basketball. Gonzaga has about 4000 undergrads?

I like cheering for the untouted teams, that aren't suppsed to win....Like Bradley getting to the sweet 16 or George Mason beating UNC.

Alex	03-19-2006 06:26 PM

Plus, in addition to basketball players, Gonzaga also produced Bing Crosby. Semi-literally, since his childhood home now houses the Gonzaga Alumni Association.

So, whatever respect Gonzaga gets for basketball, we are eternally in their debt for doing whatever they did that convinced Crosby to drop out and persue music instead of lawyering.

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