Official election predictions
 

I'm thinking Presidential, but feel free to throw in any other important things, like CA prop 8 or final House and Senate counts.

As posted in another thread, my official Presidential prediction (assuming no game changing October surprises come out) is that Obama wins the popular by 6-8 pts and the electoral by 130-190.

Shenanigans! C'mon scaeagles, do we really need another election thread?

Isn't it enough that the Obama thread has become all about Sarah Palin, making it indistinguishable from the McCain thread, and both should have just remained in the RPTII thread? There's already two or so Prop H8 threads, a thread about the California ballot initiatives which is inclusive of Prop H8, and sundry other election-related threads.


I'm respectfully requesting you request this thread be closed. It's really just complete overkill. That's imho. And it's your decision completely. But, for god's sake, think of the children!!

I'm predicting an Obama win, but by a closer margin than the polls are indicating now.

Unfortunately, I think 8 will pass. I'm sad about that, but the No on 8 folk do not have the funds the Yes idiots do.

I will have to go back to find it, but somewhere in the distant past I predicted that Obama would win the Democratic nomination and would win the election.

You guys would NOT believe what I just head about Sarah Palin.....



;) (Sorry, iSM, couldn't resist).


An election thread is entirely appropriate, and it doesn't have to degenerate into another Palin thread. Scaeagles made it clear that it's a general thread, and there are a lot of other campaigns and issues being voted on besides the Presidency.

Here in Washington, the governor's race is pretty much even, or so I've read. The last election (between the same candidates) was very nasty, and this one has been as well. I don't really care for either candidate, but I'm going with Gregroire (our current gov), mostly because the thought of having a governor named after Fred Flintstone's dog is a bit off-putting.

Slots is the big issue here.

Personally I'm all for them. I would never play slots so it's a tax someone else pays.

The problems is that with slots, the tax revenue would be paid by those least able to afford it. I can't say I like that.

So much like a vote for Obama, I'll probably vote my conscience over my own financial interests.

Ok, what about the Senate? The Dems are within a hair's breath of a filibuster-proof 60 of them after election day, something they couldn't have dreamed of a month ago.

Is that possible? What would it mean for the country combined with an Obama administration?

I really was only looking for what people thought numbers would be in terms of margin.

Of course, ISM, I'm now tempted to create 17 other political threads....particularly since YOU were so against the generic "random political thoughts" thread I originally created. Hmph!

I swear, I wish Congress ran more like a parliament (minus the whole parliament choosing the leader thing). Screw two parties, I want disparate voices and coalitions. Not a fan of filibuster-proof super majorities on either side.

But of course I'd rather it be the Dems with the super majority than the Repubs at this point.

On a local level I'm seriously hoping that Joe Arpaio is out of here. I'm not sure what the actual chances of that are, but we need a new sheriff, like now. Arpaio is such an a$$hat. Scaeagles? Opinion?

I think there's a good chance that AZ's marriage amendment, 102, will get defeated. It did two years ago, but it was by a narrow margin. Must we keep doing this every two years?

I'm voting no on payday loan reform. If it doesn't pass then in two years payday loans aren't allowed in the state anymore. Reform removes the sunset clause.

I don't remember the other initiatives off the top of my head. I'm not nearly as educated about local candidates as I should be.

Arpaio? Eh, I don't mind Arpaio.

Last poll I saw on 102 was support was up 49-40.

I don't know enough about the payday loan industry to cast an informed vote on this. I need to read up beyond the rhetoric.

As far as ballot initiatives, I'm with you. The stupid Diamondbacks stadium was voted down 273 times or some such thing before passing. Just keep slinging it out there with different wording and anything will eventually pass. Don't know what the answer is to that.

I doubt the high-speed rail will pass, though I voted for it. I think people in CA are just too nervous about trains now, especially here in SoCal. I hope people pass the additional funding for the CalVet loan programs, real estate can use all the help it can get, and this'll give veterans an opportunity to get in while prices are hard hit.

I'm afraid 8 might pass, although I do talk to a lot of people who plan to vote no, so hope remains high for an underground movement to tip the scales. I think it's important we all get out there and talk it up.

Are you new around here or what?

Not only would I not want either party having a super majority, I wish there was a way to prevent congress being controlled by the same party as what the President is. For example, if Obama wins, congress would have to be Republican controlled and if McCain wins, Congress would have to be Democratically controlled.

Yes, I know there is no way to make this happen, it is just what I wish for.

True that. Checks and balances and all.

I love the way they debate back and forth in each other's faces. It's intense and if you don't know what you're talking about, everyone knows it.

That sounds like many of the political threads here.

Hmm I learn something every day.

I thought you were a Bush supporter in '04.

Just goes to show one can never assume anything (or keep up with all of the thousands of posts... at least I can't).

I guess. Except I never claim to know a lot. I speak (type) with my heart and my gut. That's why I would make a terrible politician.
:D

I thought Arpaio was the most popular man in Arizona.

As to margins, it's tough to predict. I think that McCain, with his tin-eared charges of socialism and anti-Americanism, will continue to sink.

I successfully predicted that iSm would complain about this thread but he posted before I could.

:D

That's an easy prediction to make... iSm complains about everything!

But he's NOT a curmudgeon!

I predict that I will crack and start making phone calls for Obama to swing states, even though I had thought I wouldn't be able to. If I had a habit of biting my nails I'd already be bleeding. Perhaps it's just my brain that is bleeding.

Good Luck. I couldn't make myself do it for Prop H8. I just could not do unto others what I loathe others doing unto me, just for the sake of not having others do unto me and mine what I would never do to others.

Screw you guys, I voted for McRib.

I'd totally forgotten about Washington's governor's race until Wendybeth mentioned it. If Dino wins, I'm going to be even more glad that I'm no longer a resident.

I predict the election will be over on November 4th :eek: . Further, I predict (to my dismay) that the next election cycle will start within 2 months of this one being over.

Yep...if McCain wins we could end up with Hillary in 2012....

An Obama win could bring on Jeb Bush in 4 years:)

It's not McCain/Palin vs Obama/Biden it's really McCain/Hillary vs Obama/Jeb

:eek:

I like the prediction over at fivethirtyeight that Prop 8 will lose 45-55.

The prediction on prop 8 in the paper today was similar and said there was a 3 point margin of error... they stated that the 8 has been steadily winning ground since August though so it's going to be tight.

Can't we just have this election already!!!

This graph is from the same article. Look! A Jesus fish! :D

I predict it will all come down to a dance off.

That's hilarious!

How about a Pants Off Dance Off between Biden and Palin?

La, la, la
 

Isn't it convenient how election night comes after Halloween with all that leftover candy? That's my prediction for the election: I will be watching tv, eating leftover Halloween candy.

3894 is inadvertently giving me wonderful/evil thoughts....

Poor kitty :(

Maybe it was Photoshopped?

I'm nauseated by the amount of Yes on 102 (AZ's gay marriage amendment) signs in my neighborhood. I think it's gonna pass here.

Posterboard....................................... ...........$1.10
Sharpie........................................... .............$0.99
Standing on a busy corner for a couple hours......$free

Knowing you did everything you could to prevent legalized discrimination...... priceless


(Still a couple days left to get the word out, folks!)

I'm not a statistician and I don't know a great deal about polls, but I've been looking at a couple of things and was wondering what everyone thought.

First, I've been following 538.com after mousepod pointed it out to me.
Take a look at the left hand side of their homepage. Obama's win percentage: 93.7%. Is that a realistic prediction?

Second, I've been following CNN's early voting map. Scroll over some of the states, some of them show a breakdown of Dem and Repub early voters. If a majority of those folks vote along party lines, then I think there will be bad news for McCain on Tueday.

Tell me what you think.

I'm not getting my hopes up, but this does kind of put me in a happier mood.

I'm willing to bet that a male over the age of 35 will win the presidency.

And something else I was thinking. I think the polling places are going to be mobbed this election year. Record turnout.

Just a feeling.

102 will win in AZ in a landslide.

I just don't get the polls. Everything from 11% Obama to 2% Obama with 8% undecided.

I figure Obama has it, but that's some ridiculously different results.

Ruining everybody's hope (on the West Coast) for exciting result viewing parties (most of the people I know up here are going to one, though I'm probably not) when the polls close in Virginia at 4pm PST, the state will be called within an hour. When it goes to Obama, for all intents and purposes it is over.

I'll go out on a limb and say Dems get 60 seats in the Senate and gain 31 in the House.

375 electoral votes for Obama and a popular vote spread of 8.4%.

I still have my election night party fun ... since there's zero suspense for the presidential race ... and a real nail-biter for the more important issue of Prop H8.

And if you care about the march to 60 in the Senate, that will be excitement that goes late into the night since if it happens, Ted Stevens seat in Alaska will be the last to switch Dem.

It's a difference in sample size, sample selection, how they decide to predict liklihood of actually voting (based on previous patterns, based on stated intent, or a combination). And of course bias. That's why you have to look at ALL the respectable polls and pay attention to trends over time, not just look at one poll on one day.

fivethirtyeight.com does the most comprehensive job of breaking these things down, tracking previous bias each poll has, and doing in depth statistical analysis to give a much clearer picture than a single poll number could ever give.

Here's a really good breakdown of how some major pollsters do their thing and their general track record in terms of accuracy and bias.

Thanks....I was speaking rhetorically, as I do understand all of the varying methodologies and pollins samples. That's why I've been watching IBD and Zogby most closely, as they both pretty much nailed the last one.

Umm, Zogby had Kerry winning. Zogby's been pretty unreliable for a while.

oK....never mind. Maybe I as thinking of Rasmussen. Was I at least right about IBD? Yikes....can this election just be over please? My brain hurts.

I read something scary.....some article about how the next PResidential election cycle starts 11/5.

You've said that many times (about Zogby having been most accurate in 2004) and while that didn't mesh with my memory, it didn't matter much so I didn't go look.

But I finally did (football is boring me today) and I'm finding my recollection seems to have been right. Here's RealClearPolitics's post election polling analysis from 2004 (linking to them because I know it is a source you like). Notice that they have Zogby towards the bottom half of the pack on the national horse race and here's their overall review of Zogby's performance in the 2004 election (bolding mine):

Per them, if you want most accurate (on the horse race number) from 2004, then you want to be using Pew (currently has 52-46 in favor of Obama) or Battleground (can't find current polling).

Aren't you supposed to seek immediate health care if you experience an election lasting 4 years?

Damn.

IBD/TIPP and Rasmussen were both pretty good in 2004. IBD/TIPP currently has 46.7-44.6 Obama and Rasmussen is 51-46 Obama.

lol!
:D

Neither uses cell phone polling, the full implications of which are unkown right now. The polls that do use cell phone polling pretty consistently show a larger lead for Obama.

There's a group of YES ON 8 people who stand at the intersection by my work. Alex suggested I make a big sign that says "BIGOTS AHEAD" and then stand on the sidewalk ahead of them. rofl

That would be awesome.

Yes, the concept is, if the polls are right, Obama has a 93% chance of winning. Even the weakest polls for Obama show him as having more than enough electorals without any surprises, I believe.

Best idea ever!
:)

Well, as the pollsters start rolling out their final estimates, all the major ones have Obama up by at least 5 points nationally. Many models are predicting that all he has to do is hold one or two of the battleground states, most of which he currently leads in. Some even say he can lose all the battleground states and still get the electoral win.

I'm upgrading my mood to cautious optimism on the Obama front.

So according to ESPN you need to watch football tonight. They claim tht if Washington wins the same party will stay in the White House but if they lose then the other party wins.....I sure hope Washington loses tonight. They claim that it has been so for the last 17, that's a lot of elections!

Not that such coincidences mean anything, but the streak of 17 actually only goes through the 2000 election. This predictor was wrong in 2004 when Green Bay beat Washington, meaning that John Kerry should have won the election.

The only hope McCain voters has is the poll cited by Alex - 2.1% lead with 8.9% undecided.

I've heard people here say if you haven't decided by now you're stupid (this is a condensed version, of course). I disagree. I think waiting until the last minute isn't a bad idea in such an important election. Goodness knows my vote or lack thereof has changed 100 times.

Sceagles, I do not say any undecided voter is stupid. I simply cannot fathom not having a decision made by now. I cannot fathom a person standing at the booth counting eeney-meeney-miney-moe to figure out who they might vote for at this late stage.

I think there is a difference between being open to a change of mind based on late breaking information and actually being undecided. I chose to support Obama a long time ago, but I'm open to changing my mind if sufficient new information came to light.

If, at this point, one honestly doesn't know whether, in the absence of new information, they'll vote for Obama or McCain then I wouldn't use stupid (though they might be), I'd assume such a person falls into one three groups:

1. They have somehow managed to avoid learning anything substantive about the candidates and therefore do not have the necessary information for making a decision. This isn't stupidity, it is ignorance.

2. They hold personal views so shallowly examined that they do not have any kind of mental framework within which to judge the merits of the candidate positions. This isn't necessarily stupidity, but it is a lack of curiosity about oneself.

3. They do have an idea of how they want to vote, but it is out of step with what they view as their community (church, geographic area, circle of friends, whatever) norm that they can't pull the trigger on committing to it. This could be a closet Obama fan in a deeply Republican house, a resident of the Castro who kind of likes McCain, etc.

Though there is, of course, the group of the "pushover" which may be closest to stupidity. People who always agree with the last person they heard speak.

The commentators on my morning drive today where citing a study that showed something like 80% voters who are still undecided days before an election don't actually vote.

Although I may be classified as group 1 (ignorant), I am still not decided for basically two reasons: 1) I HAVEN'T put as much thought/research into as I want and 2) From what I DO know, I do not like either candidate. For example, I do not like Obama's tax plan: saying that it is okay to raise the taxes on the "rich".

It won't come down to a coin toss in the voting booth, but I truly still have not made a final decision (though I do have a preference at this point).

Though, since this is a "Prediction" thread, I stay with the prediction that I made several months ago: that Obama will win.

ETA: I made my prediction on February 5th that it would be McCain vs. Obama with an Obama victory.

I am still undecided at this point.

I want Barack Obama to be president and I believe he will be. He's sure to win California's rich electoral vote pie, so I'm free to vote for someone else in minor protest ... but I haven't quite decided whether I will bother ... and I suspect the decision will be made in the voting booth tomorrow morning.


Yet I hardly think I've been a disinterested or retarded citizen this election season.

Tomorrow night. Are we going to post election reactions as the votes come in on this thread or will there be another one created?

I am concerned for iSm's health if another election thread is started.

What if each person opens a thread of their own and then posts what they feel there?





j/k
:D

Rather than starting another thread ( no matter how much pleasure that would bring me to cause ISM great grief), my friends, I wanted to remind you of what I said a month or so ago in some thread or another, which is that I would be taking a short leave of absence from the LoT beginning immediately after the election.

Should Obama win, which is quite likely, honestly, I don't want to read about the joy here, nor do I wish to rain on the parade. Enjoy yourselves.

Should McCain win, honestly, I won't have a whole lot of joy and I won't want to read about how everyone is depressed and/or very angry, or how the vote was suppressed, or whatever is going on here.

Please don't think my absence is anything other than a brief separation. I'll be back, and this is certainly no YAGE. Even though most here are so screwed up mentally when it comes to politics, you've all grown on me. :)

Pot calling the kettle black here, Sceagles! I feel exactly the same about you and your cr-A-zy polital leanings. You're still a nice guy, no matter how whacked out your politics may be. ;)

Y'all know that after the election is wrapped up we'll be force-fed Christmas don't you?

I saw some this past weekend at Wal-Mart. Yes, I was in Wal-Mart I am ashamed to admit. But it was not my choice and Susan was on a mission and I was not about to get in her way.

I'm a non-Christmasist. I long ago learned to mentally mask out all Christmas stuff regardless of what time of year it pops up.

Oh dear God, Johnny Mathis singing The Most Wonderful Time of the Year was being piped over the muzak/PA walkinh through Embarcadero this morning. I nearly barfed.

Yeah, and I'm thinking with the economy struggling as it is, the commercials may be even more frequent than last year.

Although the idea of spending Christmas at home for the first time in a long time is kind of exciting.
:)

I don't know how this morphed into the Christmas thread, but I saw the decorations going up at the mall ON Halloween.

I understand the rush this year. Most retail businesses are going to go out of business ... and this Christmas is the only chance to save them.


Um, except that finally 73% of the Nation will be joining me in not spending more than a hundred dollars on Christmas presents.

No Christmas until Black Friday!

Where's that quote of mine...

This one?Or this one?

Or perhaps this one....

But I'd lay money she's now thinking about this one.

Hmm... I wonder what that read before it was changed?

That was anticlimactic.

I went to vote this morning, it took me all of 5min. No lines at all. No pushy pro this or anti that's. Took all the fun right out of it if you ask me.

Not much of a big deal here, either.

More people than I've ever seen in line at 7AM, though

So who is everyone going to watch for election returns:

- CNN
- ABC
- MSNBC
- Fox (That one's for you Leo)
- NBC
- Cspan
- CBS
- Leave it to beaver re-runs?
- Hard to say when I'm this drunk

Longest lines I've EVER seen at my sleepy polling place. (As in, first time there's been ANY line.) Having to wait 45 minutes to vote made it seem appropriately momentous. Obama's a foregone conclusion in California, so it warmed my heart that so many more people than usual are interested in voting today.

Aside from the presidential election that is on everyone's mind whether their vote can influence it or not ... there are a rather astounding number of very important ballot measures in California ... not the least of them Proposition 8 ... but also Props 5, 4, 2, 9 and 11.

This is really the most important election day I've ever seen in California ... and it made me almost appreciate the long line to vote. :cool:

Most likely CNN and Comedy Central.
:)

I'm mostly an ABC News watcher. I will likely tune into the Indecision 2008 special.

We'll see what our hosts choose, but I'd go with PBS, MSNBC, and a widget or two. The CNN widget was advertised as you being able to pick your races to watch, but they only cover certain races and only two of the CA props (8 and 4, the abortion-parent-notification one).

ETA - oh yeah, Indecision 2008! Definitely would check that out.

We are a voting location for 2 precints (sp?). The polls opened at 7am - the first guy was there at 6:20. He said last year he had to wait a while and didn't want to this year. (although if he was voting at our location last year, I find that hard to believe as it was dead. This is the first time we are hosting for 2 areas.)

By the time 7am rolled around, there were about 30-40 people in line. Not too bad.

I spent a lot of time blowing up balloons with helium and setting out 1/2 off furniture and accessory signs. Hoping we get some sales from the voters on their way out.

No sign wavers outside. But probably 10 different local election signs popped up overnight at the end of the street.

I have to wait until this afternoon to vote.

Long line at the polling place on Crescent Heights and Fountain.

Crap, I should set the TiVo to record that just in case we miss it.

Took about an hour to vote. Took 45 minutes to get from the 100ft marker to the voting booth.

I was there right at 7, with about 50-60 people in front of me. There were 12 booths set up.

Same for me.

Porn

Though I cannot find the specific law, no campaigning is allowed with a certain distance (100 feet?). In some states, this means you can't even where a "No on 8" pin or your Obama T-Shirt into the polling place when you vote.

Right now all the polls are open.
Hawai'i opened 48 mins ago.
:)

What about American Samoa?

We're just back from voting, where we were in line for an hour and ten minutes. And this is the first time I have ever encountered any line at all voting in LA.

I'll try to post the pictures I took later. It took my camera phone three photos, taken from across the street, to get the full length of the line.

The residents of American Samoa cannot vote in national elections.

They only vote in primaries.

Odd. That's like being kicked out of a dinner party after the appetizer.

As for out local polling place, my wife said there were about 20 people in line at 7:00 when the workers showed up. When I went to vote at 8:45, there were about four people ahead of me. One or two people in line when I left. I've never seen a line for a movie in this town either, so we'll see.

MSNBC online and at home.

Did you point out that getting in line 40 minutes early to avoid having to stand in line means he has disqualified himself from voting?