Poker puzzle
 

I'm watching poker on ESPN and I think they made a mistake with their graphics. They show the players' hands and what the odds that they'll draw the best hand. In the situation I'm looking at right now, they're saying that Player 2 has a 5% chance of getting the best hand, but as far as I can tell he's drawing dead. Am I missing something?

Player 1
9C, 8H

Player 2
6S, 6C

Board
8C, 8D, 3D, JH

With just the river left to go, Player 1 has trip 8s, Player 2's got a pair of 6s. No one's got a flush draw. No one's got a straight draw. What could possibly hit on the river that would give Player 2 the hand? An 8 gives Player 1 4 of a kind. A 6 does give Player 2 trip 6s, but that doesn't beat Player 1's 8s. If the board pairs the Jack or the 3, Player 1 has a full house over the 2 pair of Player 2.

Right?

A 6 gives Player 2 a full house (3 sixes, pair of 8s) not three of a kind.

Though the odds calculator I use gives this set-up a 4% not 5% for Player 2.

*forehead smack*

Thank you.

That's ok, you actually had me convinced enough that I didn't see it until I actually set up the hand in the odds calculator. Then I was all "wait a minute..."

Hmmm....next time I'm in LA I'm thinking we should have a poker party.....

If you'd like to take this one brain-fart as an indication of my poker abilities...I'd be happy to invite you over for a game.

I wonder if ESPN takes into account the fact that they knew what the other players at the table had in their hands and folded. If they knew no one else had a 6, that would bump the odds up a bit.

Just messin' with you, GD. I am certain you are an exceptional player.

*sigh* you actually had me over thinking that, GD.

When I'm back from Chicago, I'll probably head over to do a tourney or two in Wendover, NV on the weekend of Belmont Stakes.

Why I haven't won, and probably won't win: I always play sober and end up over thinking everything - inevitably missing the obvious. Maybe I should take a drink this weekend. I just hate the fools at the table that go in drunk and wild with their hands. Ugh.