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Personally, I think Bin Laden is already dead. I think his recent tapes may even allude to it. He looks markedly younger in the tapes than in earlier ones, and whenever the speaking refers to current events, the video seems to freeze. I might perhaps be twisting in some odd conspiracy theory, but it would seem in the best interests of al Qaeda to give the illusion that he is still alive. his death really couldn't be considered martyrdom if he died hiding in a cave, and he is certainly the figure head of al Qaeda. I certainly don't claim to know, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was dead.
I don't think it is Bush using bin Laden videos as support for Iraq....I think it is bin Laden (or whomever making the videos) making Iraq a rallying point to al Qaeda, because if the US defeats the insurgence there (as the success of the surge would seem to indicate is happening), then al Qaeda loses momentum. A premature US withdrawal would equate to a tremendous victory for al Qaeda, whether al Qaeda was a reason for the invasion or not.
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