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If they feel they need to split it into two movies, that doesn't bode well for Jackson avoiding the bloat of the last two movies for LotR. The Hobbit is a relatively simple, straightforward story. Nothing other than continuing the need to include absolutely everything (or at least reference it as a commercial for the 14-hour extended DVD version) would require 5-6 hours of movie.
But the man did manage to make King Kong into a 3-hour movie.
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