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Old 01-30-2008, 10:10 AM   #2949
Alex
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Join Date: Feb 2005
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I wish that Edwards had stayed in through next week. That could have helped Obama but I see his departure now as hurting him.

Hundreds of thousands of people have already voted and probably 12-15% have voted for Edwards. It is purely a gut feeling but I believe that without Edwards those votes would have overwhelmingly gone to Obama.

Now he'll only get a few percent of the voting day votes (his name will still be on the ballot some people will still vote for him) meaning that in most states that he is unlikely to reach the minimum threshold in proportional assignment of delegates where if he'd stayed in the race he would have received them.

This isn't ideal for Obama, but I do believe that if things remain close between him and Clinton that Edwards will eventually throw his delegates to Obama. So if he'd stayed in the race those 12-15% of the absentee ballots would eventually have carried some weight for Obama but now they're likely completely off the table of no use to anybody.


This is one reason that, while I make use of it, I don't support early and absentee balloting (at least not as it is currently carried out).
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