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I've actually put some thought into this. While iTunes et.al. pretty much put the physical delivery of music out of business (yes, there are still a lot of CD's sold, but it won't be long), I believe that it is still a while before you will see movies being delivered in this fashion because of 1) the requisite size of the movie files, and 2) ownability (I love making up words).
The second issue is going to be a tough sell. When you buy a song from iTunes, you own it (yes, there are services where you only rent your music). People want to own things. We have, for the most part, become accustomed to how to burn the downloaded music to a CD. But right now, the movie studios are being MUCH more restrictive on what can be done with their intellectual data and are not as free with the content as the music biz was.
I would say that Blue-Ray still has a 3-5 year life cycle.
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