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That's not at all what I'm saying. I understand the statistical analysis is much more complex.
I was just looking to see if, from a completely pop. sci. point of view there is anything surprising about this story. And since over the last 300 years there has only been one period longer than 30 years without a 6.7+ earthquake in California, there really isn't (especially since the actual prediction is within 47 years which is far longer than any previous period).
Scientifically, the big new is that the certainty is 99.7% (or whatever it was) rather than 91.3 or something. But from a general news reading culture that is a meaningless distinctions.
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