[Morrigoon]

Not to derail with a reference several pages back, but Alex there is a flaw in your grand plan for your next vehicle. Speaking in terms of damage to the environment, there is an issue with your "plug-in electric" vehicle plan. The energy from your electrical system comes from somewhere, and that somewhere often takes its own toll on the environment.

Now, obviously, if we switched to nuclear, it would be a different kind of damage than the use of coal. Sure, we have hydro and wind power, but if I recall from a thread about a year or so ago, only a portion of our power comes from wind and water.

***

I don't understand why there isn't more talk of biodiesel. And by biodiesel, I don't mean ethanol. Biodiesel can use oil from more sources than merely corn, which is already inefficient to produce. Besides which, we already use quite a bit of oil in this country (Fast Food Nation, anyone?), which could be recycled into fuel thus not only reducing the amount of oil production needed, but also providing some cost recovery for the food service industry and less oily substances entering our water systems by way of drains.

What's more, certain types of biodiesel do not even require special equipment on the vehicles (instead the oil is treated to prepare it for use) - so vehicles on the road today (even that beat-up '63 Beetle in your local high school parking lot) could be running on biodiesel. Today's diesel vehicles are also highly efficient (making CA's issues with the sale of new diesel passenger cars somewhat silly).

And if we can't produce enough palm/peanut/corn/etc. oil? We can patronize any of a number of 3rd world countries, whose mainly agricultural economies would benefit, thus raising the quality of life for people around the world. But because so very many countries could produce what we need, we need not be slaves to their resources.

One possible issue with this sunny outlook would be the potential for food shortages in countries who switch over too much production from food to fuel, but with nearly every nation around the world able to produce it, the pricing would be kept fairly low, minimizing the possible impact on food.

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As far as the impact of speculation on oil prices - I agree that that is where the problem is. Only there's a hitch: we can't stop oil futures from being traded in the major markets because of the practical applications of futures trading. Many companies anticipate their needs and guarantee access to them by purchasing futures in their necessary raw materials (be it cotton or oil, or whatever). Others use futures to hedge their bets and average out the cost per unit needed by stocking up (in a theoretical sense) on what they may need in the coming months, so if there's a sudden drastic increase in price, it doesn't completely destroy their ability to make a profit on their core business.

Airlines, for example, try to stock up on oil futures when prices dip, to soften the blow when prices rise, bringing down their average fuel cost per flight mile.

When the fear is of constant increasing prices, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy as they continue to buy any fuel below the price they fear it's going to rise to (until, due to demand, it does indeed rise to that price). Then on top of the "legitimate" buyers of futures, there are speculators, who hope to sell their shares to those same companies when their stores of fuel become limited.

(legit put in quotes because, of course, speculation is, in fact, legit in most respects)