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Interesting take. Couple issues with that....first, it's a month old, when Obama regularly had a 6-7 point lead on McCain. Zogby today a 5 pt lead for McCain, with others 1-2 pts either way. Also, Carter was the incumbant, and try as they might, I don't think Obama has been that successful at linking McCain to Bush, which is what the above theory must rely on.
1980 also had a huge impact of John Anderson. His support was pretty high for a thrid party candidate until late, when he ended up only pulling 5%, and all those who had supported him went to Reagan (well, virutally). The exodus didn't happen until late October. That factor isn't there in this race.
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