Thread: Yes, we can.
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Old 08-20-2008, 08:51 PM   #1671
sleepyjeff
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cadaverous Pallor View Post
Reagan and Carter were running neck and neck until the end, when Reagan won in a landslide. One pundit's mention of this:


Yes, just punditry, no claims to prescience from me. We'll see how it goes...
Well, isn't that my point? I am not saying Obama's going to lose I am saying there is no way, judging by current polls, Obama has this locked up....far from it in my opinioin.

Edit to add:

I find it interesting that this pundit uses the Reagan Carter contest as a device to prove his point but needs to assign Obama the spot of the Republican in order to carry this off.......when the fact is, Democrats tend to peak in July polls then slide downwards from there(Obama is a Democrat, not a Republican).

~Kerry; ahead by 7% in July lost by 3% in November

~Gore; ahead by 2% in July lost by 0% in November

~Clinton; behind by 7% in July but did win in November by 5%(guess he's the exception to the rule)

~Dukakis; ahead by 6% in July lost by 8% in November

~Carter; down only by 3% in July but lost by 10% in November

~Carter; up by 33% in July and only won by 3% in November

~Humphrey; up by 5% in JUly and lost by 1% in November

~Kennedy; up by 6% in July but only won by 1/5 of 1% in November
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Last edited by sleepyjeff : 08-20-2008 at 09:35 PM. Reason: Further my train of thought.
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