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I'd say that a real historical event could be the backdrop, though best one with little strong societal emotion still involved, but the specific dramas depicted need to be well in the realm of fiction.
Airport '75 and United 93 are both movies essentially about a plane full of people in peril and the reactions of those people as well as spectators on the ground. But emotionally they are very different things. And I'd say there is a certain emotional remove to Disaster Movies that isn't necessarily reflected in the literal meaning of the phrase.
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