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I've read some statistics this morning that do make a compelling case to me that based on the numbers, Belichik did the right thing. Kind of like the decision you face when hitting 16 against a dealer's 8. The odds are almost exactly the same either way but slightly better if you hit (but many people intuitively disagree and so stand figuring it is better to not bust).
That said, it does end up looking spectacularly stupid if it doesn't work. All the more so for going against conventional wisdom (which is the reason for all the stupid punts on fourth and 2 from the other team's 42 yard line).
So I agree that the real failure was misuse of his timeouts and then not allowing Addai into the end zone so you'd get the ball back with time.
One thing that I didn't quite understand though is everybody saying how this showed his contempt for his defense. Couldn't it be spun the other way as him saying "I'm going to go for this to ice the game now because I'm extremely confident that if we don't get it the defense can still keep them out of the end zone?"
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