[Ghoulish Delight]

Except Leno's ratings were the same as the rating he was getting at 11:30, which lead the time slot. They were only bad in the context of a 10PM slot.

Given the situation they were in at the beginning of the year, and the way the contracts were written, NBC had very valid business reasons to make the move at the time they made it. The asshole thing they did happened long long before, by promising Conan a chance at the Tonight Show and then totally undercutting his odds of succeeding by caving to Jay Leno's whining, thus all but guaranteeing they'd put themselves in the position they found themselves in. I don't think the issue was as much not enough people watching Leno to lead into the news->Conan. I think the issue was too many people who were used to Leno just deciding to keep watching Leno and not give Conan a chance. Had the option to keep watching Leno not been there, Conan would have maintained some percentage of that audience and gotten a much better start than he did.

So yeah, by the numbers Leno was a clear better business investment at 11:30 than Conan...but only because NBC set it up so that result was all but inevitable. Had Johnny Carson been moved to 10 when Leno started hosting the Tonight Show, I guarantee Leno would have never done as well as he did.