I am living proof of a person simultaneously devious and stupid.
I agree with all your points of logic, Alex, but it's very difficult to avoid conspiratorial theorizing on a subject where conspiracies are so rife.
However, I think the sexual assault charges are more "trumped up" than conspiratorial, per se - and yet I'm assuming we'll see much more conspiracies to come in the Assange case. Does a conspiracy have to be secret? Because otherwise I find the "plan" to pass new laws specifically to find Assange guilty of them to be quite conspiratorial.