[Alex]

Originally Posted by katiesue

Interesting article 10 100 year predictions that came true.

What comes is long and boring but it interested me to look stuff up so I'll overshare.

Ugh. This is how psychics get taken seriously. Some good predictions but the amazement generally seems overstated to me and the misses are almost completely ignored (or massaged into "near hits").

The prediction:

There will probably be from 350,000,000 to 500,000,000 people in America and its possessions by the lapse of another century. Nicaragua will ask for admission to our union after the completion of the great canal. Mexico will be next. Europe, seeking more territory to the south of us will cause many of the South and Central American republics to be voted into the Union by their own people.

The BBC article merits the population figure a near miss but getting bonus points for predicting a slowing of growth. They could have reported it a hit since the 2000 population of the mentioned countries plus possessions in 1900 (Cuba and the Philippines being the mathematically relevant ones) was 433 million. Add in the unspecified South American countries and the number was probably too low, not a bit too high.

So the predictions included there:
1) The U.S. maintaining its "possessions." - WRONG
2) Nicaragua becoming a state. - WRONG
3) Mexico becoming a state. - WRONG
4) Europe making serious colonial plays in South America. - WRONG
5) The siting of the Panama Canal in Nicaragua (which was a decision only 3 years in the future). - WRONG
6) A population of 350-500 million in the territory he is talking about - RIGHT

1 for 6.

The Prediction

The American will be Taller by from one to two inches. His increase of stature will result from better health, due to vast reforms in medicine, sanitation, food, and athletics. He will live fifty years instead of thirty-five as at present-for he will reside in the suburbs. The city house will practically be no more. Building in blocks will be illegal. The trip from suburban home to office will require a few minutes only. A penny will pay the fare.

BBC only mentions the height increase and says it is spot on.

1) Americans will be taller by 1-2 inches. RIGHT
2) This will be because of improved medicine. RIGHT
3) This will be because of improved sanitation. RIGHT
4) This will be because of improved food. RIGHT and WRONG (food sanitation yes, what we eat not so much)
5) This will be because of improved athletics. WRONG (don't think improved physical activity has played a role)
6) Average at-birth lifespan will be 50. WRONG (78 is the correct answer)
7) Average American will live in the suburbs. RIGHT (it's around 50%, will give it to him)
8) City housing will disappear. WRONG
9) Building in blocks will be illegal. WRONG
10) Average suburb to office commute will be minutes. WRONG
11) Commuting will only cost a penny. WRONG

4.5 out of 11.

The Prediction:

There will be no C, X or Q in our every day alphabet. They will be abandoned because unnecessary. Spelling by sound will have been adopted, first by newspapers. English will be a language of condensed words expressing condensed ideas, and will be more extensively spoken than any other. Russian will rank second.

Absolutely everything is wrong in this one. English is the second most spoken language (including as secondary language behind Chinese). With Russian fourth. Considering native speakers only English is third (now behind Spanish as well) and Russian is 8th.

0 out of 5.

The Prediction

Hot or cold air will be turned on from spigots to regulate the temperature of a house as we now turn on hot or cold water from spigots to regulate the temperature of the bath. Central plants will supply this cool air and heat to city houses in the same way as now our gas or electricity is furnished. Rising early to build the furnace fire will be a task of the olden times. Homes will have no chimneys because no smoke will be created within their walls.

He did better on this one. Though wrong about centrally provided hot and cold air (centrally generated steam for heating does exist but it existed then too) he was right about us abandoning fire as the heating method of choice and is ornamental in most instances.

2 of 4.

The Prediction

Insect screens will be unnecessary. Mosquitos, house-flies and roaches will have been practically exterminated. Boards of health will have destroyed all mosquito haunts and breeding-grounds, drained all stagnant pools, filled in all swamp-lands, and chemically treated all still-water streams. The extermination of the horse and its stable will reduce the house-fly.

In the right direction (and by historic standards you could argue that all but roaches have been "practically eliminated") but none of these have been eliminated and fortunately he was wrong that all swampland and still water would be eliminated.

The Prediction

Ready-Cooked Meals will be bought from establishments similar to our bakeries of today. They will purchase materials in tremendous wholesale quantities and sell the cooked foods at a price much lower than the cost of individual cooking. Food will be served hot or cold to private house in pneumatic tubes or automobile wagons. The meal being over, the dishes used will be packed and returned to the cooking establishments where they will be washed. Such wholesale cookery will be done in electric laboratories rather than kitchens. These laboratories will be equipped with electric stoves, and all sorts of electric devices such as coffee grinders, egg beaters, stirrers, shakers, parers, meat choppers, meat-saws, potato-mashers, lemon-squeezers, dish washers, dish dryers and the like. All such utensils will be washed in chemicals fatal to disease microbes. Having one's own cook and purchasing one's own food will be an extravagance.

This one is interesting as it is a pretty good description of industrial food processing. Oddly the BBC article focuses on the take-out aspect of it and mentions the miss on returning dishes but doesn't mention the pneumatic tubes or the abandonment of individual food shopping. He's right that having your own cook is an extravagance, but honestly, it was an extravagance in 1900 too.

And now I've bored myself.