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And I'll bet that hundred dollars the one to succeed, if either do, will be the one that's backwards compatible with regular DVD.
Consumers are simply not ready to replace the DVD collections they are just beginning to term "collections." Even if Blu-Ray wows the tech-geeks, Joe Blow Consumer is not going to let his DVDs go the way of the 8-track just yet.
Frankly, neither format is going to be offering the kind of improvement over DVD that Joe Blow will roll over for. Perhaps it would have been better to wait the few years till all analog signals disappear from the consumer realm. HDTV will have near universal penetration by then (or by 2 weeks after the analog cut-off) ... and perhaps a format that offers a slightly better picture quality might have a chance at that point.
That's still a big perhaps.
As for more room for extras - - well I've already got 96 hours of running commentary on my Lord of the Rings DVDs plus 544 hours of documentaries and such. Do I really need the extra "extras" room that a new format would provide?
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