[Cadaverous Pallor]

I see Alex's point. I'd have to say sure, it's possible that God is punishing people all the time with horrible things. But that doesn't mean that I could tell punishment from happenstance, or that anyone else could, either.

The religious side of me says that if God wanted to punish someone, or a group of people, then that someone or group would have to realize it themselves. If a person is a thief and an earthquake causes everything they own to be destroyed, they may say to themselves, "God is telling me to be a better person" and turn their life around (and this may be God's plan all along). If I go up to someone after an earthquake destoys everything they own and tell THEM "God is telling YOU to be a better person", then that person isn't going to say "Oh, hey, thanks for translating that for me, here I was just thinking that I was unlucky." There may even be people whose lives were utterly changed by Katrina that are now saying to themselves "God wanted me to start over" or "God was showing me the error of my ways". I'm willing to bet that there are plenty who are doing better for themselves because of it. But that's their own affair.

In short, let God do his own lesson-teaching, and it's beyond anyone else's ability (or business) to help God out with that.