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I'm generally wrong, but I voted for Capote. I think they'll pull the same wussy move they do so often and give the director award to the leading-but-controversial movie and then go with Capote for best picture because hey, how can that be an anti-gay statement?
The spoiler in this theory is Good Night and Good Luck, but I don't think it will be a contender for director (my bet is that he gets original screenplay) and I think it's too quirky (that b&w! It's scary!) to really stand a chance at BP, unless Hollywood gets all send-a-message-y.
Of course, I haven't seen a single one of these films.
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