Yes, we can.

Alex · 08-07-2008, 03:06 PM

Yes, but that assumes that while McCain flips a couple very tight, that Obama does not do the same.

A couple sites I've looked at that do some probability math put the odds of McCain pulling off the shifts necessary at 10% or less. Now, I'm perfectly aware of the muddiness of it all and that much can change. But I think the situation is that much must change for McCain to win.

For example, here is one site that uses current polling data to calculate that if held today McCain would have a 2% chance of winning. Click on Michigan and Nevada to give them to McCain and his chances go up to 20%.

Again, I am not saying things can't change, I'm just saying that currently the situation is not nearly so close as the media would have us to believe. But they have a vested interest in making races sound closer than they really are.

08-07-2008, 03:06 PM	#11
Alex . Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 13,354	Yes, but that assumes that while McCain flips a couple very tight, that Obama does not do the same. A couple sites I've looked at that do some probability math put the odds of McCain pulling off the shifts necessary at 10% or less. Now, I'm perfectly aware of the muddiness of it all and that much can change. But I think the situation is that much must change for McCain to win. For example, here is one site that uses current polling data to calculate that if held today McCain would have a 2% chance of winning. Click on Michigan and Nevada to give them to McCain and his chances go up to 20%. Again, I am not saying things can't change, I'm just saying that currently the situation is not nearly so close as the media would have us to believe. But they have a vested interest in making races sound closer than they really are.
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