MLB '11

Alex · 05-11-2011, 10:32 AM

You need to compare that against the rate at which the Dodger's give up runs in the next half when they didn't score. If that also is is around 30% then it doesn't show any particular propensity of the Dodger's to give up runs right after they score them, just a propensity to give up runs (i.e., if the Dodger's allow the other team to score in 100% of the innings you could say "Every single time the Dodger's got some runs they immediately gave them back but there wouldn't really be any connection between the two).

Also, you can calculate some confidence intervals as 83 innings doesn't seem like a big sample to rule out random bad luck (which is important for assigning blame).

05-11-2011, 10:32 AM	#11
Alex . Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 13,354	You need to compare that against the rate at which the Dodger's give up runs in the next half when they didn't score. If that also is is around 30% then it doesn't show any particular propensity of the Dodger's to give up runs right after they score them, just a propensity to give up runs (i.e., if the Dodger's allow the other team to score in 100% of the innings you could say "Every single time the Dodger's got some runs they immediately gave them back but there wouldn't really be any connection between the two). Also, you can calculate some confidence intervals as 83 innings doesn't seem like a big sample to rule out random bad luck (which is important for assigning blame).
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