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Originally Posted by Ghoulish Delight
I heard an interesting discussion on NPR the other day. An econimonist feels that he has demonstrated statistically that points-shaving is rather rampant in NCAA basketball. He bases this on 3 observations he made by studying a large sampling of games in which one team was heavily favored over the other from the past few years:
1) The win-loss distribution (not factoring in the spread, just raw wins and losses) was exactly what would be predicted by the odds.
2) There were significantly more wins by the favored team that were decided by just under the point spread than statistically predicted.
3) Conversely, there were significantly fewer wins by the favored team that were decided by just over the point spread.
It's certainly a compelling argument. He was quick to point out that he didn't have enough data from any single team to point fingers and say, "These guys were point shaving!" He can only look in aggregate and conclude that something is definitely skewing the results from their statistical distribution.
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So how can I use that to make a killing with my sports bookie?
03-17-2006, 12:56 PM
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