The random political thoughts thread (Part Deux)

[Alex]

Eh, if that 7 point national lead were to result in a 7 point victory in each individual state that would still result in essentially a tie on delegates.

I think we're still a long way from having a clear leader for the Democrats.

An example from California. 440 delegates up for grabs. If Clinton beats Obama 53% to 47% and the votes are distributed evenly throughout the state she'll get 233 and he'll get 206. If votes for Hillary cluster in urban areas while Obama is more successful in rural areas (as has been the case elsewhere) then he'll start to gain delegates beyond that straight popular vote since most of the delegates are actually assigned based on proportional performance within congressional districts.