Betting on the Super Bowl for fun and profit

[Alex]

Originally Posted by Moonliner

Assuming the ceremonial coin had a relatively even weight distribution between heads and tails.

Not really, assuming it is random which will be called by the player.

If the toss is biased 75%/25% in favor of heads but the player is randomly making their call they'd still be right 50% of the time.

But yeah, my main point in the response was that the previous 11 outcomes are irrelevant to the setting of the odds for this coin toss. There are certainly other biasing factors in the current toss that could have an impact (such as that soldier doing the toss being an expert coin tosser able to produce a desired result and he's from Tucson).