The random political thoughts thread (Part Deux)

[Alex]

Oh, how I feel about them having nuclear weapons has absolutely nothing to do with how I think about their right to get them.

And I find the idea that Iran would launch an aggressive strike against us to be more laughable than them doing it against Israel. There's "insane" as in not caring a lick what the rest of the world thinks and then there's "insane" as in willing to risk your very existence. Kim Jong Il may be the latter (though there's not been any real evidence of that) but Ahmadinejad definitely isn't.

[BarTopDancer]

Originally Posted by Alex

Oh, how I feel about them having nuclear weapons has absolutely nothing to do with how I think about their right to get them.

And I find the idea that Iran would launch an aggressive strike against us to be more laughable than them doing it against Israel. There's "insane" as in not caring a lick what the rest of the world thinks and then there's "insane" as in willing to risk your very existence. Kim Jong Il may be the latter (though there's not been any real evidence of that) but Ahmadinejad definitely isn't.

If they launch against Israel (which I think is more likely then launching against us, though I'm more worried about them launching against us) wouldn't they still be risking their very existence based upon our relationship with Israel?

[bewitched]

Originally Posted by BarTopDancer

If they launch against Israel (which I think is more likely then launching against us, though I'm more worried about them launching against us) wouldn't they still be risking their very existence based upon our relationship with Israel?

If it were anything other than a nuke I'd say that they would have a lot to fear from us. Israel is more than capable of responding in kind to a nuke attack and I think it is far more likely that we would let Israel suffer the world-wide consequences of using a nuke (even in defense) than to go anywhere near that particular tar baby.

There have been rumors around for quite some time (especially under Bush) that if there was "proof" of Iran making nuclear weapons, Israel would have our tacit (and very secret) approval to bomb the **** out of the production sites. The US has always denied this. Personally, I think it is highly unlikely that the Obama administration is on board with this since they seem to be much more amenable to the carrot over the stick approach.

On another note, I think that sheer tactical barriers (such as transporting a nuke past satellite surveillance to get it to a ship) bar the US from being a realistic target anytime in the foreseeable future.