The Bird Flu is Comming! The Bird Flu is Comming!

[Moonliner]

Originally Posted by Ghoulish Delight

I have problems with that number. The 1918 flu epidemic killed between 20 and 40 million people....

I tracked down Dr. Longini. Here is the response he sent:

Originally Posted by Dr. Longini

yes, you are right about 1918. this was a bit out of context.
the case fatality rate for 1957 h2n2 and 1968 h3n2 was on the order of
1-2/10,000 when averaged over all age groups. for 1918 it was on the
order of 1-5/100, two orders of magnitude higher. however, that very
high rate was before antibiotics that are now use to treat secondary
bacterial pneumonia. probably the major killer of for flu cases. this
would be of no use against primary viral pneumonia. in our recent work,
we tend to stay away from predictions of case fatality rates for
pandemic flu. a big unknown. cheers, ira longini



--
Ira M. Longini, Jr., Ph.D.
Professor
Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics
Hutchinson Cancer Research Center
and
Department of Biostatistics
U. Washington School of Public Health and Community Medicine


1100 Fairview Ave. N., LE-400
P.O. Box 19024
Seattle, WA 98109-1024


Phone: 206-667-2721
Cell: 404-275-5156
Fax: 206-667-4812

So basically he's admitting he was wrong when he said "in recorded or even unrecorded history"

Nice catch GD.