Israel, Lebanon, and Gaza

[Prudence]

It seems a shrewd move by Hezbollah/Hamas. The US, Israel's strongest ally, is distracted by difficult situations in Afghanistan and Iraq, and world opinion of the US is at a very low ebb. The UN security council is busy with weapons programs in Iran and North Korea. The new Israeli PM doesn't seem to have the same international status as Sharon (I had to look up Olmert's name). And Hamas has increased status in Palestinian territory. If there was ever a time to instigate trouble, this is it.

Also, with the building of the wall and the pull-out from Gaza, Israel hasn't been properly fulfilling its assigned role as neighborhood bully. So, gotta do something to provoke the response that will justify renewed conflict.

I don't know if continued escalation is inevitable, but it at least seems like a very real possibility. And I have mixed feelings about that. I'm not particularly fond of people blowing up other people, and if they really must do that I wish they'd go somewhere with fewer historical treasures. However, I also think that no substantial improvements will be made in that region until the more moderate countries are jolted out of the tendency to frame conflicts as isolated, unrelated actions and forced to take a firm, public stance - and back it up with actions. Is this the provocation that will lead to that action? I don't know.