The Gay Thread

[Ghoulish Delight]

Originally Posted by SzczerbiakManiac

It's political suicide. As much as we'd like to think otherwise, the majority of voting Americans are appalled by the idea of "letting faggots and dykes get married." Maybe that will be different in 25 years but there's an awful lot of people who need to die off before the scales will tip in our favor.

Says who?

Yeah, that gets skewed once you narrow down to who actually shows up to vote...which is why he's doing this. Because while there are not a lot of people who are opposed to gay marriage who are on the fence about Obama, there are a lot of people who would otherwise support Obama but have been reluctant to show up and cast a vote his way because of his refusal to take a firm stance in favor.

The old people that oppose Obama are going to vote, and vote against him, no matter what. The variable is how many of his younger would-be supporters will be motivated to actively support him. This kind of stance creates the charged atmosphere necessary to get people off their asses to the ballot.

[innerSpaceman]

It all depends on swing states, though - so national polls are pretty useless. And that's why the general worry among some that this was a bad move. Swing States = Redneck States, by and large (and very generally speaking).

But I'm sure they gauged the reaction to the vice-president and the cabinet secretary both floating trial balloons earlier in the week. I'm happy they decided to go ahead with fireworks. I think it's the smart move, and I'm going to trust the multi-zillion dollar smart political campaign that happens to agree with my own informal analysis.

Sure it will be nasty, and this will bring out the crazies in droves. But no more drove than were already driven. And it sure doesn't hurt to have an opponent with such pathetic foot-in-mouth disease.

[Ghoulish Delight]

A few important swing states for Obama: Colorado - 47%-43% in favor of legalize marriage. Virginia - 47%-43% in favor. Iowa - same sex marriage IS legal. New Hampshire - same sex marriage IS legal.

In many of the other swing states, the percentages are close to even. And if the question is expanded to "Should same sex couples at least have the same legal protection via civil unions" the numbers are OVERWHELMINGLY in favor (on the order of 65%-35%) in every swing state.

Compare that to the numbers from less than 10 years ago and it's a complete reversal almost across the board. The momentum is clear.

And I can't believe that there is a large number of undecided voters whose deciding factor is Obama's stance on gay marriage. Do you really think there's a good number of people that are thinking, "Well shoot, I WAS going to vote for him, but now..."

Similarly, are there a lot of people who were sitting around saying, "You know, I was going to sit this one out, but now that he's supporting gay marriage..." I really don't think so. The kinds of people who might get motivated for that reason were by and large already motivated for plenty of other stupid reasons.

But I've talked to PLENTY of people who would be supporters, but were feeling very unmotivated to support him this time because of his weak record on these kinds of issues. Without those people in his corner, he's doomed.

[SzczerbiakManiac]

Originally Posted by Ghoulish Delight

Do you really think there's a good number of people that are thinking, "Well shoot, I WAS going to vote for him, but now..."

Yes, I do. It's easy to find these people. They like to congregate on Sundays. Strike up a conversation with them, you'll see what I'm talking about.

[Morrigoon]

Originally Posted by Ghoulish Delight

Similarly, are there a lot of people who were sitting around saying, "You know, I was going to sit this one out, but now that he's supporting gay marriage..." I really don't think so.

I can name one person who said just that.

[Ghoulish Delight]

Of course there are some. But my perception (and it seems Obama's camp agrees) is that it's a small number compared to the number of people who are too unhappy with how little he's supported the community so far to want to vote for him again.

Looking at the 60%+ vote for Amendment 1, it's clear that the anti-gay vote is ALREADY mobilized. Any further mobilization caused by this is going to be marginal. A small price to pay to re-mobilize the base that carried him in '08.

[Morrigoon]

I'm starting to think we need a law that constitutional amendments (state or national) can only be put on the major ballots. They're always sneaking sh*t like this in on primary ballots, which makes it way to easy for the non-incumbent party to ensure better turnout.

[alphabassettgrrl]

Originally Posted by Morrigoon

I'm starting to think we need a law that constitutional amendments (state or national) can only be put on the major ballots. They're always sneaking sh*t like this in on primary ballots, which makes it way to easy for the non-incumbent party to ensure better turnout.

I think that's a large part of why these things are on the ballot in the first place- to mobilize their base.

[lashbear]

Christwire reveals how YOU could be drinking The Gay unsuspectingly.

[alphabassettgrrl]

Originally Posted by lashbear

Christwire reveals how YOU could be drinking The Gay unsuspectingly.

So THAT'S what happened.