MLB '10

[Alex]

Originally Posted by Moonliner

What spoiler? The Nat's lost.

Well, if the season ended after the first inning, you'd be going to the playoffs!

[Ghoulish Delight]

Yeesh.

I wonder how opening day performance historically correlates to season performance. I hope not well.

[Alex]

Not particularly. If my math is correct then of the last 64 teams to make the playoffs (2002-2009) only 49.2% won their first game.

Of the last 16 teams to reach the World Series only 5 won their first game and only 2 of those went on to win.

[Ghoulish Delight]

Ah good, I see you correctly decoded "I wonder" to "I can't wait until Alex complies the numbers and determines".

[Strangler Lewis]

You'd probably also want to know if those 49.2% were playing on the road or at home.

[Alex]

Ok, I had a calculation error in my first number:

How many of the last 64 playoff teams won their first game of the season: 48.43%

How many of the last 64 playoff teams won their first game of the season if it was played at home (33 games): 48.48%

How many of the last 64 playoff teams won their first game of the season if it was played away (31 games): 48.39%

How many of the last 64 playoff teams won their home opener regardless of when that happened: 60.94%

How many of the last 64 playoff teams won their home opener when it was the first game of the season (33 games): 48.48%

How many of the last 64 playoff teams won their home opener when it was not the first game of the season (31 games): 74.19%

To really make any claim to the value of these numbers it'd be best to compare them to the total league result in the same categories but I'm not doing that.

[Ghoulish Delight]

So based on that entirely superficial data, the Dodgers are in great shape, as long as they win their home opener.

[Moonliner]

Originally Posted by Ghoulish Delight

So based on that entirely superficial data, the Dodgers are in great shape, as long as they win their home opener.

And from what I hear Padilla is not exactly your #1 stud muffin pitcher. So I expect the future is bright and don't forget, you play the Nats early on so you can count on a standings boost there.

[Kevy Baby]

Originally Posted by Moonliner

And from what I hear Padilla is not exactly your #1 stud muffin pitcher. So I expect the future is bright...

We don't really have a standout #1 yet, so time will tell who that will be. From what Torre said, it was a coin toss as to who was going to pitch opening day.

Originally Posted by Moonliner

...and don't forget, you play the Nats early on so you can count on a standings boost there.

Its hard to pick on your Nats when my team doesn't fair any better on opening day

[Ghoulish Delight]

Really Blake DeWitt? You BEG for a chance to play 2B, and that's the result?

You owe my son an apology. The first Dodger game of his LIFE that he watched, and that's what he had to witness. For shame.