2009 NCAA LoT Bracket Challenge - Page 3

Ghoulish Delight · 03-19-2009, 01:47 PM

I'm 3-1, 50-50 on my first 2 upset picks (admittedly, they were both #8 vs. #9 games). w00t

Ghoulish Delight · 03-19-2009, 02:04 PM

By stating it in terms of odds, they implied probability.

Alex · 03-19-2009, 02:10 PM

Thinking about the odds some more and maybe not quite so small as I thought.

Let's say you accurately predicted for the 2007 tournament that there would be 11 games out of the 63 that would not be accurately predicted by the seeding. What then are the odds of you correctly picking the correct eleven games? Assuming upsets are randomly distributed (which they're not, 9 beating 8 is much more likely than 16 beating 1) you'd have a 1 in 615 trillion chance of being right on picking all 11 upsets. Still really small but 10,000 times better than treating everything like a coin flip.

Considering that the range in actual upsets seen is probably pretty consistent, adding in the need to correctly predict that it will be 11 upsets probably doesn't add more than a degree or two of magnitude. This would be counteracted by the fact that the upsets aren't randomly distributed across all 63 game.

Alex · 03-19-2009, 02:35 PM

Ok, then it's correct. I don't pay enough attention to know if people had to pick that one too.

Do we have any sense of how often people pick perfect brackets? Even the reduced odds I mention above (assuming random distribution of upsets) make it unlikely that it has ever happened.

wendybeth · 03-19-2009, 08:47 PM

Hey, the team that I'm not going to name or root for beat Akron! They owe me for this one- I totally ignored the game, even though it was on in the break room.

Moonliner · 03-20-2009, 11:56 AM

The early results are in:

Drince88 takes the early lead with 17 correct picks so far.

Ghoulish Delight, Sactown, and myself are tied for 2nd at 15 each

Next up Lashbear, Obama and BDBopper at 14 games

In the cellar we have Deebs and the Unauthorized Scaeagels with 10 and 6 correct picks respectively.

Deebs · 03-20-2009, 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moonliner

In the cellar we have Deebs and the Unauthorized Scaeagels with 10 and 6 correct picks respectively.

I'm in the cellar with Scaegles??

At least I am beating him.

scaeagles · 03-20-2009, 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deebs

I'm in the cellar with Scaegles??

At least I am beating him.

I'm a bit late to this thread, I see.

Please read the UNAUTHORIZED Scaeagles. I was out of town (as stated in another thread) and did not make any entries. Whomever did that must have been pretty amused with themselves, though.

Jerk.

Kevy Baby · 03-20-2009, 04:18 PM

While I have not been involved in this thread, I thought of y'all when I saw this today:

scaeagles · 03-20-2009, 09:42 PM

Well, I'm doing OK in my office pool. Had 26 of the 32. It's also set up to give bonus points for getting all teams in a region correct, and I got all 8 in the west. So things are looking good for me early on, as I still have 14 of the 16 that will be left after Sunday alove as of now (having picked Wake and FSU, but the upsets are what make the tournament great).

03-19-2009, 01:47 PM	#1
Ghoulish Delight I Floop the Pig Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Alternative Swankstyle Posts: 19,348	I'm 3-1, 50-50 on my first 2 upset picks (admittedly, they were both #8 vs. #9 games). w00t __________________ 'He who receives an idea from me, receives instruction himself without lessening mine; as he who lights his taper at mine, receives light without darkening me.' -TJ
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03-19-2009, 02:04 PM	#2
Ghoulish Delight I Floop the Pig Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Alternative Swankstyle Posts: 19,348	By stating it in terms of odds, they implied probability. __________________ 'He who receives an idea from me, receives instruction himself without lessening mine; as he who lights his taper at mine, receives light without darkening me.' -TJ
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03-19-2009, 02:10 PM	#3
Alex . Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 13,354	Thinking about the odds some more and maybe not quite so small as I thought. Let's say you accurately predicted for the 2007 tournament that there would be 11 games out of the 63 that would not be accurately predicted by the seeding. What then are the odds of you correctly picking the correct eleven games? Assuming upsets are randomly distributed (which they're not, 9 beating 8 is much more likely than 16 beating 1) you'd have a 1 in 615 trillion chance of being right on picking all 11 upsets. Still really small but 10,000 times better than treating everything like a coin flip. Considering that the range in actual upsets seen is probably pretty consistent, adding in the need to correctly predict that it will be 11 upsets probably doesn't add more than a degree or two of magnitude. This would be counteracted by the fact that the upsets aren't randomly distributed across all 63 game.
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03-19-2009, 02:35 PM	#4
Alex . Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 13,354	Ok, then it's correct. I don't pay enough attention to know if people had to pick that one too. Do we have any sense of how often people pick perfect brackets? Even the reduced odds I mention above (assuming random distribution of upsets) make it unlikely that it has ever happened. Last edited by Alex : 03-19-2009 at 02:52 PM.
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03-19-2009, 08:47 PM	#5
wendybeth Nevermind Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 7,847	Hey, the team that I'm not going to name or root for beat Akron! They owe me for this one- I totally ignored the game, even though it was on in the break room. __________________
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03-20-2009, 11:56 AM	#6
Moonliner 8/30/14 - Disneyland -10k or Bust. Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 9,022	The early results are in: Drince88 takes the early lead with 17 correct picks so far. Ghoulish Delight, Sactown, and myself are tied for 2nd at 15 each Next up Lashbear, Obama and BDBopper at 14 games In the cellar we have Deebs and the Unauthorized Scaeagels with 10 and 6 correct picks respectively. __________________ - Taking it one step at a time.
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03-20-2009, 04:18 PM	#9
Kevy Baby Chowder Head Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Yes Posts: 18,500	While I have not been involved in this thread, I thought of y'all when I saw this today: __________________ The thing about quotes on the internet is that you cannot verify their validity. - Abraham Lincoln
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03-20-2009, 09:42 PM	#10
scaeagles I LIKE! Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 7,819	Well, I'm doing OK in my office pool. Had 26 of the 32. It's also set up to give bonus points for getting all teams in a region correct, and I got all 8 in the west. So things are looking good for me early on, as I still have 14 of the 16 that will be left after Sunday alove as of now (having picked Wake and FSU, but the upsets are what make the tournament great).
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