MLB '12 - Page 5

Ghoulish Delight · 06-14-2012, 11:24 AM

With some sloppy math and reasoning, I came up with on the order of 200,000 games played over the ~130 year history of MLB. This being the 22nd perfect game, that puts the odds somewhere around .0001:1.

Not quite lottery territory of improbability, but still a number that adds some perspective.

Kevy Baby · 06-14-2012, 11:35 AM

Wouldn't the odds be shown as ~9,090:1 (using the common "odds" vernacular)?

Moonliner · 06-14-2012, 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kevy Baby

Wouldn't the odds be shown as ~9,090:1 (using the common "odds" vernacular)?

Because if anyone knows a thing or two about being odd, it's Kevy.

Kevy Baby · 06-14-2012, 12:18 PM

And while I expect Alex to provide a more comprehensive analysis, I did find this site where someone did the math (through 2008) which puts the number at 345,950.

Add ~2,430 regular season games per year (30 teams x 162 games per year / 2) x 3 years = 7,290 games.

Then using an assumption of an average of four games per divisional playoff, and 5.5 games per league championship and World Series (I am too lazy to look up the actuals), that is an additional 33 games per season ((4 x 4 divisional) + (2 x 5.5 league) + 5.5 then round up the half game) x 3 =~100 additional games.

Then, there have been 935 games played this season so far, which brings the count up to 345,275.

So the odds are closer to 15,694:1

I need to get a job

Ghoulish Delight · 06-14-2012, 01:06 PM

I did say it was sloppy.

Kevy Baby · 06-14-2012, 01:14 PM

Sorry for correcting you. I was bored and curious.

Regardless, it must have been awesome to witness.

Alex · 06-14-2012, 01:14 PM

Of course, that is over the course of history, as Keith Olbermann put it on his baseball blog:

Quote:

Last night, Matt Cain threw the first major league perfect game in nearly two months!

He threw the first individual no-hit game in nearly two weeks!

He threw the first no-hitter of any kind in five days!

He did throw the only no-hit game of the night, though R.A. Dickey didn’t get one in St. Petersburg only because of a dubious scorer’s decision that might yet be reversed

Time will tell if it is just statistical clumping (as Olbermann goes on to talk about) or perhaps is a sign of some fundamental shift.

Actual conversation last night as I was falling asleep (and pretty much there):

Lani: Hey! The Giants had a perfect game.
Me: No they a hit that could have been ruled an error.
Lani: I think the news said it was a perfect game.
Me: nggghgngngn

Kevy Baby · 06-14-2012, 01:30 PM

I'm confused by your post Alex (or maybe by Keith's POV). What is the issue with the perfect game?

Ghoulish Delight · 06-14-2012, 01:31 PM

He's pointing out that perfect games/no hitters have been conspicuously frequent of late.

And his half-sleep conversation with Lani was Alex conflating Cain's perfect game and Dickey's near-no-hitter.

Alex · 06-14-2012, 01:46 PM

In the first 136 years of professional baseball there'd been 17 perfect games. In the last 2 years and 11 months there have been 5.

Sign of something? Or just an odd clump? After all, the first two perfect games in the National League happened within a week of each other and then it was another 84 years until the third one (also a fact offered in Olbermann's blog post).

06-14-2012, 11:24 AM	#1
Ghoulish Delight I Floop the Pig Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Alternative Swankstyle Posts: 19,348	With some sloppy math and reasoning, I came up with on the order of 200,000 games played over the ~130 year history of MLB. This being the 22nd perfect game, that puts the odds somewhere around .0001:1. Not quite lottery territory of improbability, but still a number that adds some perspective. __________________ 'He who receives an idea from me, receives instruction himself without lessening mine; as he who lights his taper at mine, receives light without darkening me.' -TJ
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06-14-2012, 11:35 AM	#2
Kevy Baby Chowder Head Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Yes Posts: 18,500	Wouldn't the odds be shown as ~9,090:1 (using the common "odds" vernacular)? __________________ The thing about quotes on the internet is that you cannot verify their validity. - Abraham Lincoln
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06-14-2012, 12:18 PM	#4
Kevy Baby Chowder Head Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Yes Posts: 18,500	And while I expect Alex to provide a more comprehensive analysis, I did find this site where someone did the math (through 2008) which puts the number at 345,950. Add ~2,430 regular season games per year (30 teams x 162 games per year / 2) x 3 years = 7,290 games. Then using an assumption of an average of four games per divisional playoff, and 5.5 games per league championship and World Series (I am too lazy to look up the actuals), that is an additional 33 games per season ((4 x 4 divisional) + (2 x 5.5 league) + 5.5 then round up the half game) x 3 =~100 additional games. Then, there have been 935 games played this season so far, which brings the count up to 345,275. So the odds are closer to 15,694:1 I need to get a job __________________ The thing about quotes on the internet is that you cannot verify their validity. - Abraham Lincoln
	Submit to Quotes

06-14-2012, 01:06 PM	#5
Ghoulish Delight I Floop the Pig Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Alternative Swankstyle Posts: 19,348	I did say it was sloppy. __________________ 'He who receives an idea from me, receives instruction himself without lessening mine; as he who lights his taper at mine, receives light without darkening me.' -TJ
	Submit to Quotes

06-14-2012, 01:14 PM	#6
Kevy Baby Chowder Head Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Yes Posts: 18,500	Sorry for correcting you. I was bored and curious. Regardless, it must have been awesome to witness. __________________ The thing about quotes on the internet is that you cannot verify their validity. - Abraham Lincoln
	Submit to Quotes

06-14-2012, 01:30 PM	#8
Kevy Baby Chowder Head Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Yes Posts: 18,500	I'm confused by your post Alex (or maybe by Keith's POV). What is the issue with the perfect game? __________________ The thing about quotes on the internet is that you cannot verify their validity. - Abraham Lincoln
	Submit to Quotes

06-14-2012, 01:31 PM	#9
Ghoulish Delight I Floop the Pig Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Alternative Swankstyle Posts: 19,348	He's pointing out that perfect games/no hitters have been conspicuously frequent of late. And his half-sleep conversation with Lani was Alex conflating Cain's perfect game and Dickey's near-no-hitter. __________________ 'He who receives an idea from me, receives instruction himself without lessening mine; as he who lights his taper at mine, receives light without darkening me.' -TJ
	Submit to Quotes

06-14-2012, 01:46 PM	#10
Alex . Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 13,354	In the first 136 years of professional baseball there'd been 17 perfect games. In the last 2 years and 11 months there have been 5. Sign of something? Or just an odd clump? After all, the first two perfect games in the National League happened within a week of each other and then it was another 84 years until the third one (also a fact offered in Olbermann's blog post).
	Submit to Quotes