Merry Christmas - MA date announced - Page 17

Alex · 04-15-2008, 09:57 AM

I posted this at MousePad, but thought I'd share here as well. I sought to quantify just how bad it is with MouseAdventure so often being on unusually hot days.

The results were not what I expected. Only 1/3rd of MouseAdventures have been held on days that were warmer than the historical average for that date. However, three of the times they've been over, it has been way over (twice by more than 20 degrees).

A cherished myth shattered. But good support for why I hold personal perception (particularly by an emotionally involved group) in so little esteem as support for the reality of something. I'm sure I'll bring this up in some future discussion.

Particularly ironic, to me, is that the first seven MAs were actually all cooler than average and yet we developed the idea from them. While four of the last five have been warmer than average and I think the perception has been that the days (other than this last one) were generally more temperate than in the past.

Ghoulish Delight · 04-15-2008, 10:03 AM

What about a comparison to temperatures of the surrounding days/week? I think that's added to the perception, the fact that the MA days are (if memory serves, which it clearly doesn't) hotter than the days leading up to and following.

innerSpaceman · 04-15-2008, 10:21 AM

Yes, sorry Alex, but we humans are not cognizant of the historical average. It means zip to us. We get used the rapidly-changing seasons of Southern California (i.e., June now is not what June was like 10 years ago). And we base our subconscious expectations on the current season we are experiencing.

Regardless, it's all perception. And mine has had it. Thanks for the AP info that Anaheim tied for hottest spot in the nation at 102. I won't be doing that anymore. I have no problem bowing out Day Of based on the actual weather, but I can't do that to my teammates ... so I will just be sitting out future Spring MouseAdventures.

I'll keep trying in October. Plus, with my all-too-human perception that time goes faster as we age, MA once-a-year is plenty often enough.

Kevy Baby · 04-15-2008, 10:36 AM

I would actually be more interested in the ACTUAL temperatures on each day. Just because the actual temperature is 2 degrees under normal for that day doesn't mean that 94 degrees isn't freaking roasting*.

* And I have no idea what the actual temperatures have been - I am just pulling a number out of my arse.

Ghoulish Delight · 04-15-2008, 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kevy Baby

I would actually be more interested in the ACTUAL temperatures on each day. Just because the actual temperature is 2 degrees under normal for that day doesn't mean that 94 degrees isn't freaking roasting*.

Of course, but it's always seemed the MA days were unseasonably hot, that by some cosmic joke, temperatures were abnormally spiking on MA days.

Alex · 04-15-2008, 10:46 AM

I'm not at all saying that we are wrong to think it is hot. We're not. It generally is. What was surprisingly wrong is the perception that it is generally hotter than normal. I don't have the actual numbers here at work but I can say say that the median game day high for MouseAdventure is in the upper 70s.

And regardless, this last Sunday was beyond the pale (28 degrees above average high for April 13).

GD: I did look at that, at least with day before and day after, and there was no significant trend. Game day was randomly warmer and cooler than the day before and after. A couple times it was significant but generally it was just a degree or two. If I have time (and am still interested) I'll extend that out to a week tonight.

katiesue · 04-15-2008, 12:58 PM

The heat didn't help. But we just sucked. Nothing ever quite jelled.

Ghoulish Delight · 04-15-2008, 01:14 PM

I'm just hoping the Fall one is on a date we can do it. I'm getting sick of having to miss every other one.

Morrigoon · 04-15-2008, 01:16 PM

So Alex, what you're saying is that they've just historically chosen a bad date to hold MA?

Alex · 04-15-2008, 01:26 PM

Not really, the average high for pretty much every day in in March/April and October/November is pretty much "low 70s" and pretty much that's where we've been with a couple major outliers.

I think what we have done wrong is historically we've chosen a bad state in which to hold MA.

04-15-2008, 09:57 AM	#161
Alex . Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 13,354	I posted this at MousePad, but thought I'd share here as well. I sought to quantify just how bad it is with MouseAdventure so often being on unusually hot days. The results were not what I expected. Only 1/3rd of MouseAdventures have been held on days that were warmer than the historical average for that date. However, three of the times they've been over, it has been way over (twice by more than 20 degrees). A cherished myth shattered. But good support for why I hold personal perception (particularly by an emotionally involved group) in so little esteem as support for the reality of something. I'm sure I'll bring this up in some future discussion. Particularly ironic, to me, is that the first seven MAs were actually all cooler than average and yet we developed the idea from them. While four of the last five have been warmer than average and I think the perception has been that the days (other than this last one) were generally more temperate than in the past.
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04-15-2008, 10:03 AM	#162
Ghoulish Delight I Floop the Pig Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Alternative Swankstyle Posts: 19,348	What about a comparison to temperatures of the surrounding days/week? I think that's added to the perception, the fact that the MA days are (if memory serves, which it clearly doesn't) hotter than the days leading up to and following. __________________ 'He who receives an idea from me, receives instruction himself without lessening mine; as he who lights his taper at mine, receives light without darkening me.' -TJ
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04-15-2008, 10:21 AM	#163
innerSpaceman Kink of Swank Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Inner Space Posts: 13,075	Yes, sorry Alex, but we humans are not cognizant of the historical average. It means zip to us. We get used the rapidly-changing seasons of Southern California (i.e., June now is not what June was like 10 years ago). And we base our subconscious expectations on the current season we are experiencing. Regardless, it's all perception. And mine has had it. Thanks for the AP info that Anaheim tied for hottest spot in the nation at 102. I won't be doing that anymore. I have no problem bowing out Day Of based on the actual weather, but I can't do that to my teammates ... so I will just be sitting out future Spring MouseAdventures. I'll keep trying in October. Plus, with my all-too-human perception that time goes faster as we age, MA once-a-year is plenty often enough.
	Submit to Quotes

04-15-2008, 10:36 AM	#164
Kevy Baby Chowder Head Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Yes Posts: 18,500	I would actually be more interested in the ACTUAL temperatures on each day. Just because the actual temperature is 2 degrees under normal for that day doesn't mean that 94 degrees isn't freaking roasting. And I have no idea what the actual temperatures have been - I am just pulling a number out of my arse. __________________ The thing about quotes on the internet is that you cannot verify their validity. - Abraham Lincoln
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04-15-2008, 10:46 AM	#166
Alex . Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 13,354	I'm not at all saying that we are wrong to think it is hot. We're not. It generally is. What was surprisingly wrong is the perception that it is generally hotter than normal. I don't have the actual numbers here at work but I can say say that the median game day high for MouseAdventure is in the upper 70s. And regardless, this last Sunday was beyond the pale (28 degrees above average high for April 13). GD: I did look at that, at least with day before and day after, and there was no significant trend. Game day was randomly warmer and cooler than the day before and after. A couple times it was significant but generally it was just a degree or two. If I have time (and am still interested) I'll extend that out to a week tonight. Last edited by Alex : 04-15-2008 at 10:55 AM.
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04-15-2008, 12:58 PM	#167
katiesue Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: San Diego Posts: 4,678	The heat didn't help. But we just sucked. Nothing ever quite jelled. __________________ My life is so exciting I can hardly stand it.
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04-15-2008, 01:14 PM	#168
Ghoulish Delight I Floop the Pig Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Alternative Swankstyle Posts: 19,348	I'm just hoping the Fall one is on a date we can do it. I'm getting sick of having to miss every other one. __________________ 'He who receives an idea from me, receives instruction himself without lessening mine; as he who lights his taper at mine, receives light without darkening me.' -TJ
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04-15-2008, 01:16 PM	#169
Morrigoon I throw stones at houses Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Location: Location Posts: 9,534	So Alex, what you're saying is that they've just historically chosen a bad date to hold MA? __________________ http://bash.org/?top "It is useless for sheep to pass a resolution in favor of vegetarianism while wolves remain of a different opinion." -- William Randolph Inge
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04-15-2008, 01:26 PM	#170
Alex . Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 13,354	Not really, the average high for pretty much every day in in March/April and October/November is pretty much "low 70s" and pretty much that's where we've been with a couple major outliers. I think what we have done wrong is historically we've chosen a bad state in which to hold MA.
	Submit to Quotes