Republican National Convention '08 - Page 23

scaeagles · 09-08-2008, 08:19 AM

You guys may very well be correct on the polls. However, when I consider that the livelihood of these polling organizations is being accurate they are probably trying to be damn sure they account for that.

BarTopDancer · 09-08-2008, 08:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scaeagles

You guys may very well be correct on the polls. However, when I consider that the livelihood of these polling organizations is being accurate they are probably trying to be damn sure they account for that.

I would presume it's within their margin of error. So while McCain may have received a post convention bump, his "lead" is still within the margin of error.

Tom · 09-08-2008, 08:50 AM

Several of the polls are inside the margin of error, but this seems to be a phenomenon similar to Obama's leads of the past few months. The polls almost always showed Obama ahead but near or within the margin of error. While technically, every one of those polls could have erred in his favor and the race was actually tied, the likelihood is that if the race were tied, there would have been as many polls showing McCain ahead (within the MOE) as Obama.

Now that all the polls I've seen in the last day or two show McCain ahead (albeit mostly within the MOE), it only seems logical to assume that he is ahead at this moment in time. Whether this is a real shift in the race or a short-lived bounce from the convention and the VP selection, the next week or two will show.

MOE=margin of error, in case that wasn't clear

Ghoulish Delight · 09-08-2008, 08:52 AM

It should be noted that there's been barely a quiver in electoral vote numbers, even with McCain's overall bump.

And the "likely voter" poll is hard to take seriously as "likely voter" polls have historically been pretty inaccurate.

sleepyjeff · 09-08-2008, 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ghoulish Delight

It should be noted that there's been barely a quiver in electoral vote numbers, even with McCain's overall bump.

Of course not......most states have not taken a poll since before Palin was picked as VP. Some States not since before August 15th.

scaeagles · 09-08-2008, 08:58 AM

Historicall, Zogby has been the most accurate, I think.

And really, the only poll that matters is in November.

It will be interesting if McCain wins the popular by the current Zogby 4 pt margin and loses the electoral count (with is currently at 273-265 for Obama). I would guess rolls between the parties will be reversed and those who had been complaining about he electoral system will love it and those who supported it may be complaining.

Ghoulish Delight · 09-08-2008, 08:59 AM

For the record, I never had issue with the electoral system nor the fact that Gore won the popular vote. My only issue with the 2000 election was the seemingly high probability of fraud/mistakes in Florida.

scaeagles · 09-08-2008, 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ghoulish Delight

For the record, I never had issue with the electoral system nor the fact that Gore won the popular vote. My only issue with the 2000 election was the seemingly high probability of fraud/mistakes in Florida.

That wasn't directed at anyone here (just to be clear on my point)....it was just huge in the media nationwide.

BarTopDancer · 09-08-2008, 01:13 PM

Gemini Cricket · 09-08-2008, 01:29 PM

I saw this and thought it was pretty funny.

SFW

09-08-2008, 08:19 AM	#1
scaeagles I LIKE! Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 7,819	You guys may very well be correct on the polls. However, when I consider that the livelihood of these polling organizations is being accurate they are probably trying to be damn sure they account for that.
	Submit to Quotes

09-08-2008, 08:50 AM	#3
Tom Valued member Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 541	Several of the polls are inside the margin of error, but this seems to be a phenomenon similar to Obama's leads of the past few months. The polls almost always showed Obama ahead but near or within the margin of error. While technically, every one of those polls could have erred in his favor and the race was actually tied, the likelihood is that if the race were tied, there would have been as many polls showing McCain ahead (within the MOE) as Obama. Now that all the polls I've seen in the last day or two show McCain ahead (albeit mostly within the MOE), it only seems logical to assume that he is ahead at this moment in time. Whether this is a real shift in the race or a short-lived bounce from the convention and the VP selection, the next week or two will show. MOE=margin of error, in case that wasn't clear
	Submit to Quotes

09-08-2008, 08:52 AM	#4
Ghoulish Delight I Floop the Pig Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Alternative Swankstyle Posts: 19,348	It should be noted that there's been barely a quiver in electoral vote numbers, even with McCain's overall bump. And the "likely voter" poll is hard to take seriously as "likely voter" polls have historically been pretty inaccurate. __________________ 'He who receives an idea from me, receives instruction himself without lessening mine; as he who lights his taper at mine, receives light without darkening me.' -TJ
	Submit to Quotes

09-08-2008, 08:58 AM	#6
scaeagles I LIKE! Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 7,819	Historicall, Zogby has been the most accurate, I think. And really, the only poll that matters is in November. It will be interesting if McCain wins the popular by the current Zogby 4 pt margin and loses the electoral count (with is currently at 273-265 for Obama). I would guess rolls between the parties will be reversed and those who had been complaining about he electoral system will love it and those who supported it may be complaining.
	Submit to Quotes

09-08-2008, 08:59 AM	#7
Ghoulish Delight I Floop the Pig Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Alternative Swankstyle Posts: 19,348	For the record, I never had issue with the electoral system nor the fact that Gore won the popular vote. My only issue with the 2000 election was the seemingly high probability of fraud/mistakes in Florida. __________________ 'He who receives an idea from me, receives instruction himself without lessening mine; as he who lights his taper at mine, receives light without darkening me.' -TJ
	Submit to Quotes

09-08-2008, 01:13 PM	#9
BarTopDancer Prepping... Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Here, there, everywhere Posts: 11,405	__________________ Spork is the new MacGyver Postcards From My Edge
	Submit to Quotes

09-08-2008, 01:29 PM	#10
Gemini Cricket ... Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 13,244	I saw this and thought it was pretty funny. SFW
	Submit to Quotes