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I concede the Republicans win on the Surge. Very few Americans are paying enough attention to the situation in Iraq to discern the difference between cause and effect, timing and happenstance.
So violence is down and it happened at the same time as the Surge. The Republicans lucked out on this, and there's nothing we can do about it.
Fortunately, most progressives and Dems also have ceased paying attention to Iraq ... so Barack can change the subject easily enough to the suckfest that is America in the 21st Century.
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