Republican National Convention '08

[innerSpaceman]

I concede the Republicans win on the Surge. Very few Americans are paying enough attention to the situation in Iraq to discern the difference between cause and effect, timing and happenstance.

So violence is down and it happened at the same time as the Surge. The Republicans lucked out on this, and there's nothing we can do about it.


Fortunately, most progressives and Dems also have ceased paying attention to Iraq ... so Barack can change the subject easily enough to the suckfest that is America in the 21st Century.

[scaeagles]

Originally Posted by innerSpaceman

So violence is down and it happened at the same time as the Surge. The Republicans lucked out on this, and there's nothing we can do about it.

???

The violence is down because of the surge. The reason Petraeus wants to leave the troops there longer is because lowering troop levels - as in the opposite of the surge - could result in an increase in violence. It was certainly not luck....it was the administration finally listening to what commanders were asking for and McCain was for a couple years before it happened.

I pay very close attention, and I think I might just know about cause and effect and timing vs. happenstance. Just because there is disagreement doesn't mean it is due to ignorance on the opposite side of yours.

And for the first time, McCain has a measurable lead. Zogby has him up 4, Gallup has him up 3, and USAToday has him up 10 (that's likely voters....I believe the other two were registered). More importantly, the base of McCain is now excited....I have actually become a solid McCain supporter. He still wouldn't have been my first choice, but I am no longer reluctant to vote for him.

[Cadaverous Pallor]

Originally Posted by scaeagles

I have actually become a solid McCain supporter. He still wouldn't have been my first choice, but I am no longer reluctant to vote for him.

I'd be interested to know why.

Yes, more troops means less violence. So the surge is forever, eh?

[scaeagles]

Originally Posted by Cadaverous Pallor

I'd be interested to know why.

Yes, more troops means less violence. So the surge is forever, eh?

No. The Anbar province was recently turned over to Iraqis to head up operations, but they'll need time with us there as backup.

No doubt it isn't happening as fast as anyone would like (it being going under complete Iraqi bontrol). But it is happening.

I'll answer the McCain question when I have a bit more time.

[Motorboat Cruiser]

Originally Posted by scaeagles

???
And for the first time, McCain has a measurable lead. Zogby has him up 4, Gallup has him up 3,

How can something within the margin of error be a measurable lead?

[scaeagles]

Originally Posted by Motorboat Cruiser

How can something within the margin of error be a measurable lead?

I didn't say it was outside the margin of error. It is the first time he has been above a virtual tie in either of those polls.

The 10 point USA Today poll is certainly outside the margin of error.

[BarTopDancer]

Originally Posted by scaeagles

And for the first time, McCain has a measurable lead. Zogby has him up 4, Gallup has him up 3, and USAToday has him up 10 (that's likely voters....I believe the other two were registered).

Still within Gallup's margin of error.

Originally Posted by scaeagles

I didn't say it was outside the margin of error. It is the first time he has been above a virtual tie in either of those polls.

The 10 point USA Today poll is certainly outside the margin of error.

When all other polls are within the margin of error wouldn't that make the USA Today poll an outlier?

Don't forget that a large part of the base that would boost Obama can't participate in the polls because many don't have landlines.

More importantly, the base of McCain is now excited....I have actually become a solid McCain supporter. He still wouldn't have been my first choice, but I am no longer reluctant to vote for him.

What changed for you? His running mate who proclaims to be a bitch? She's just a mini-Me with boobs of McCain.

[Stan4dSteph]

Someone made an interesting comment to me regarding polls. They are not allowed to call cell phones, thus a large portion of the people who are Obama supporters (young voters) are likely being missed on these polls.

[scaeagles]

Originally Posted by BarTopDancer

Still within Gallup's margin of error.


When all other polls are within the margin of error wouldn't that make the USA Today poll an outlier?

You are indeed correct. Please note I have been very careful not to say the McCain now has a clear cut lead. I have only said this is the first time it has been beyond tied in the polls in McCain's favor. I have certainly acknowleged that the Gallup and Zogby polls are within the margin of error, and also noted that the USA Today poll is slightly different because it is likely voters rather than registered voters.

There is no doubt, however, that momentum has shifted in McCain's favor based on the swing in the polls.

[scaeagles]

Originally Posted by BarTopDancer

What changed for you? His running mate who proclaims to be a bitch? She's just a mini-Me with boobs of McCain.

Wow. Going all out on the pit bull quote?

Palin is indeed similar to McCain...or at least what McCain has been saying recently. McCain had changed his tune over the last months to align more with the conservative base. If he had chosen a running mate who was not a conservative, I would have far greater doubts of his sincerity in those changes. For example, while I like Leiberman, if he had selected Leiberman there is no way I would have voted for McCain.

I am disenchanted with the republican party. Palin has been aggressive pursuing corruption within her own party in Alaska, and I like that. I was also exceptionally happy that McCain acknowledged the failings of the republican party.

That pretty much sums up why. Has NOTHING to do with boobs.