Republican National Convention '08

[Tom]

Several of the polls are inside the margin of error, but this seems to be a phenomenon similar to Obama's leads of the past few months. The polls almost always showed Obama ahead but near or within the margin of error. While technically, every one of those polls could have erred in his favor and the race was actually tied, the likelihood is that if the race were tied, there would have been as many polls showing McCain ahead (within the MOE) as Obama.

Now that all the polls I've seen in the last day or two show McCain ahead (albeit mostly within the MOE), it only seems logical to assume that he is ahead at this moment in time. Whether this is a real shift in the race or a short-lived bounce from the convention and the VP selection, the next week or two will show.

MOE=margin of error, in case that wasn't clear