Republican National Convention '08

[BarTopDancer]

Originally Posted by scaeagles

And for the first time, McCain has a measurable lead. Zogby has him up 4, Gallup has him up 3, and USAToday has him up 10 (that's likely voters....I believe the other two were registered).

Still within Gallup's margin of error.

Originally Posted by scaeagles

I didn't say it was outside the margin of error. It is the first time he has been above a virtual tie in either of those polls.

The 10 point USA Today poll is certainly outside the margin of error.

When all other polls are within the margin of error wouldn't that make the USA Today poll an outlier?

Don't forget that a large part of the base that would boost Obama can't participate in the polls because many don't have landlines.

More importantly, the base of McCain is now excited....I have actually become a solid McCain supporter. He still wouldn't have been my first choice, but I am no longer reluctant to vote for him.

What changed for you? His running mate who proclaims to be a bitch? She's just a mini-Me with boobs of McCain.

[Stan4dSteph]

Someone made an interesting comment to me regarding polls. They are not allowed to call cell phones, thus a large portion of the people who are Obama supporters (young voters) are likely being missed on these polls.

[scaeagles]

You guys may very well be correct on the polls. However, when I consider that the livelihood of these polling organizations is being accurate they are probably trying to be damn sure they account for that.

[BarTopDancer]

Originally Posted by scaeagles

You guys may very well be correct on the polls. However, when I consider that the livelihood of these polling organizations is being accurate they are probably trying to be damn sure they account for that.

I would presume it's within their margin of error. So while McCain may have received a post convention bump, his "lead" is still within the margin of error.

[scaeagles]

Originally Posted by BarTopDancer

Still within Gallup's margin of error.


When all other polls are within the margin of error wouldn't that make the USA Today poll an outlier?

You are indeed correct. Please note I have been very careful not to say the McCain now has a clear cut lead. I have only said this is the first time it has been beyond tied in the polls in McCain's favor. I have certainly acknowleged that the Gallup and Zogby polls are within the margin of error, and also noted that the USA Today poll is slightly different because it is likely voters rather than registered voters.

There is no doubt, however, that momentum has shifted in McCain's favor based on the swing in the polls.

[scaeagles]

Originally Posted by BarTopDancer

What changed for you? His running mate who proclaims to be a bitch? She's just a mini-Me with boobs of McCain.

Wow. Going all out on the pit bull quote?

Palin is indeed similar to McCain...or at least what McCain has been saying recently. McCain had changed his tune over the last months to align more with the conservative base. If he had chosen a running mate who was not a conservative, I would have far greater doubts of his sincerity in those changes. For example, while I like Leiberman, if he had selected Leiberman there is no way I would have voted for McCain.

I am disenchanted with the republican party. Palin has been aggressive pursuing corruption within her own party in Alaska, and I like that. I was also exceptionally happy that McCain acknowledged the failings of the republican party.

That pretty much sums up why. Has NOTHING to do with boobs.

[Tom]

Several of the polls are inside the margin of error, but this seems to be a phenomenon similar to Obama's leads of the past few months. The polls almost always showed Obama ahead but near or within the margin of error. While technically, every one of those polls could have erred in his favor and the race was actually tied, the likelihood is that if the race were tied, there would have been as many polls showing McCain ahead (within the MOE) as Obama.

Now that all the polls I've seen in the last day or two show McCain ahead (albeit mostly within the MOE), it only seems logical to assume that he is ahead at this moment in time. Whether this is a real shift in the race or a short-lived bounce from the convention and the VP selection, the next week or two will show.

MOE=margin of error, in case that wasn't clear

[Ghoulish Delight]

It should be noted that there's been barely a quiver in electoral vote numbers, even with McCain's overall bump.

And the "likely voter" poll is hard to take seriously as "likely voter" polls have historically been pretty inaccurate.

[scaeagles]

Historicall, Zogby has been the most accurate, I think.

And really, the only poll that matters is in November.

It will be interesting if McCain wins the popular by the current Zogby 4 pt margin and loses the electoral count (with is currently at 273-265 for Obama). I would guess rolls between the parties will be reversed and those who had been complaining about he electoral system will love it and those who supported it may be complaining.

[Ghoulish Delight]

For the record, I never had issue with the electoral system nor the fact that Gore won the popular vote. My only issue with the 2000 election was the seemingly high probability of fraud/mistakes in Florida.