Official election predictions

Gemini Cricket · 11-02-2008, 05:42 PM

I'm not a statistician and I don't know a great deal about polls, but I've been looking at a couple of things and was wondering what everyone thought.

First, I've been following 538.com after mousepod pointed it out to me.
Take a look at the left hand side of their homepage. Obama's win percentage: 93.7%. Is that a realistic prediction?

Second, I've been following CNN's early voting map. Scroll over some of the states, some of them show a breakdown of Dem and Repub early voters. If a majority of those folks vote along party lines, then I think there will be bad news for McCain on Tueday.

Tell me what you think.

I'm not getting my hopes up, but this does kind of put me in a happier mood.

11-02-2008, 05:42 PM	#10
Gemini Cricket ... Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 13,244	I'm not a statistician and I don't know a great deal about polls, but I've been looking at a couple of things and was wondering what everyone thought. First, I've been following 538.com after mousepod pointed it out to me. Take a look at the left hand side of their homepage. Obama's win percentage: 93.7%. Is that a realistic prediction? Second, I've been following CNN's early voting map. Scroll over some of the states, some of them show a breakdown of Dem and Repub early voters. If a majority of those folks vote along party lines, then I think there will be bad news for McCain on Tueday. Tell me what you think. I'm not getting my hopes up, but this does kind of put me in a happier mood.
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