The random political thoughts thread (Part Deux)

[Alex]

You might prefer that he not win.

Considering both the Democratic and Republican caucuses since this stupid thing began, Iowa has picked 17 candidates. 10 of those selections were not people already president of the United States and only once did one of those 10 go on to win the presidency (George Bush in 2000).

Of the six times they had it easy and picked the guy already president, they still only have three wins.

[sleepyjeff]

Originally Posted by Alex

You might prefer that he not win.

Considering both the Democratic and Republican caucuses since this stupid thing began, Iowa has picked 17 candidates. 10 of those selections were not people already president of the United States and only once did one of those 10 go on to win the presidency (George Bush in 2000).

Of the six times they had it easy and picked the guy already president, they still only have three wins.

Ok, I gotta ask. 17? I am sure there is an interesting reason the number is not even.

[Alex]

The Democratic caucus was established one presidential election cycle earlier (1972 vs. 1976 for the Republican nomination). However, in 17 caucuses they only picked a person 16 times. In the 1976 Democratic caucus Jimmy Carter lost to "None of the above."

[BDBopper]

Originally Posted by Alex

You might prefer that he not win.

Considering both the Democratic and Republican caucuses since this stupid thing began, Iowa has picked 17 candidates. 10 of those selections were not people already president of the United States and only once did one of those 10 go on to win the presidency (George Bush in 2000).

Of the six times they had it easy and picked the guy already president, they still only have three wins.

A very good point and well taken. However we are dealing with an unprecedented cycle. Good, bad, or indifferent the primary process is frontloaded. After Iowa the nominee on both sides will be decided in a month! In this kind of system the odds that the winner of Iowa would win the nomination are much higher. I do see your point though and it is well taken.