The random political thoughts thread (Part Deux)

Alex · 03-05-2008, 01:01 PM

He has to assume that if he doesn't get the nomination this time it will be 8 years before he has another shot.

Because, as a Democrat he has to make his decisions on the assumption that the Democrat will win this time (and there is no real reason for that to seem obviously wrong at this time).

That means that he has to assume that in 4 years there will be an incumbent Democrat president and unless she is just a complete failure there would be no realistic chance for anybody else to win the nomination.

Yes, if Clinton gets the nomination this time and McCain wins, then he will certainly try again in four years, but I don't think he can make plans on the assumption that this will be an option available to him.

Alex · 03-05-2008, 01:06 PM

And that's also why this is probably Clinton's only real chance at it. She has to assume her next opportunity will be 2016. And by then she'll be 69.

Yes, McCain is 71 but we're going to soon start hearing a lot of whispering about how he is too old for the job (I agree, he is) and I think that will be even more difficult for a woman to overcome.

03-05-2008, 01:01 PM	#1
Alex . Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 13,354	He has to assume that if he doesn't get the nomination this time it will be 8 years before he has another shot. Because, as a Democrat he has to make his decisions on the assumption that the Democrat will win this time (and there is no real reason for that to seem obviously wrong at this time). That means that he has to assume that in 4 years there will be an incumbent Democrat president and unless she is just a complete failure there would be no realistic chance for anybody else to win the nomination. Yes, if Clinton gets the nomination this time and McCain wins, then he will certainly try again in four years, but I don't think he can make plans on the assumption that this will be an option available to him.
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03-05-2008, 01:06 PM	#2
Alex . Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 13,354	And that's also why this is probably Clinton's only real chance at it. She has to assume her next opportunity will be 2016. And by then she'll be 69. Yes, McCain is 71 but we're going to soon start hearing a lot of whispering about how he is too old for the job (I agree, he is) and I think that will be even more difficult for a woman to overcome.
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