Hurricanes, the new baseball...

[Moonliner]

Originally Posted by Alex

I always enjoy looking at the various models.

That orange one is ALWAYS way too far east with its projections. At what point does whoever is running that one just say "hmmm, that's not working." And I like the lime green one that has it going to OKC, apparently getting scared and forgetting which way the wind blows, making a sharp left and heading to New Mexico.

The orange track is known as Cliper5 (for 5-days). It uses the current path of a hurricane and an average of historical paths of similar hurricanes to come up with a track, and is considered a "no-skill" model. Curiously, until the late 1980s, this was actually the most accurate model.

The "Lime Green" is BAM-S. 'S' for shallow. It's ment for tropical storms with a weak center of rotation. As you can see, it's not much good for a well developed storm like Ike.