Official election predictions - Page 7

BDBopper · 11-03-2008, 08:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scaeagles

I read something scary.....some article about how the next PResidential election cycle starts 11/5.

i sincerely doubt that for most the election cycle will start on Wednesday. There were several minor candididates, especially on the Republican side that only made the ballot in a few states that had four year efforts just because it would take that long to get any traction if any. However unless you are a real Politico you won't notice anything major until after 2010.

Though technically those articles are right. It is just that most people won't notice because a lot of it will be behind the scenes. For example assuming Obama wins tomorow the grassroots effort for Huckabee starts Wednesday. But all that will amount to for the next couple of years is planning, researching, and saving money.

Yes the next Presidential election cycle will begin on Wednesday. You just won't be bombarded with it until January of 2011 at the earliest because there is no need for that.

Alex · 11-02-2008, 07:55 PM

You've said that many times (about Zogby having been most accurate in 2004) and while that didn't mesh with my memory, it didn't matter much so I didn't go look.

But I finally did (football is boring me today) and I'm finding my recollection seems to have been right. Here's RealClearPolitics's post election polling analysis from 2004 (linking to them because I know it is a source you like). Notice that they have Zogby towards the bottom half of the pack on the national horse race and here's their overall review of Zogby's performance in the 2004 election (bolding mine):

Quote:

As we all know, Zogby had been on record for months saying that Kerry was going to win this race. Despite his final tracking poll that put Bush ahead by one point nationally, Zogby's polling at the state level reflected his belief that Kerry was going to be the beneficiary of huge turnout - especially among the youth vote. The result is that Zogby missed three of the eleven states he polled in (FL, IA, and NM), had a relatively high error rate across the board (3.8%), and his numbers generally skewed in favor of John Kerry.

Adding insult to injury, Zogby's bizarre election day antics calling for "surprises" in Colorado and Virginia and a decisive 311 electoral vote victory for Kerry suggest he was relying on (not to mention taken in by) the badly skewed early exit poll data.

Let's be honest: Zogby's conduct this year bordered on outrageous. No other independent pollster was out making public predictions of a John Kerry or George W. Bush victory months before hand. And no other pollster decided to wait until 5:30pm Eastern time on election day to post their final numbers.

Per them, if you want most accurate (on the horse race number) from 2004, then you want to be using Pew (currently has 52-46 in favor of Obama) or Battleground (can't find current polling).

CoasterMatt · 11-02-2008, 07:56 PM

Aren't you supposed to seek immediate health care if you experience an election lasting 4 years?

Gemini Cricket · 11-02-2008, 10:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoasterMatt

Aren't you supposed to seek immediate health care if you experience an election lasting 4 years?

lol!

Alex · 11-02-2008, 08:03 PM

Damn.

IBD/TIPP and Rasmussen were both pretty good in 2004. IBD/TIPP currently has 46.7-44.6 Obama and Rasmussen is 51-46 Obama.

Ghoulish Delight · 11-02-2008, 11:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex

Damn.

IBD/TIPP and Rasmussen were both pretty good in 2004. IBD/TIPP currently has 46.7-44.6 Obama and Rasmussen is 51-46 Obama.

Neither uses cell phone polling, the full implications of which are unkown right now. The polls that do use cell phone polling pretty consistently show a larger lead for Obama.

Ghoulish Delight · 11-03-2008, 10:05 AM

Well, as the pollsters start rolling out their final estimates, all the major ones have Obama up by at least 5 points nationally. Many models are predicting that all he has to do is hold one or two of the battleground states, most of which he currently leads in. Some even say he can lose all the battleground states and still get the electoral win.

I'm upgrading my mood to cautious optimism on the Obama front.

cirquelover · 11-03-2008, 10:07 AM

So according to ESPN you need to watch football tonight. They claim tht if Washington wins the same party will stay in the White House but if they lose then the other party wins.....I sure hope Washington loses tonight. They claim that it has been so for the last 17, that's a lot of elections!

Alex · 11-03-2008, 10:14 AM

Not that such coincidences mean anything, but the streak of 17 actually only goes through the 2000 election. This predictor was wrong in 2004 when Green Bay beat Washington, meaning that John Kerry should have won the election.

scaeagles · 11-03-2008, 10:53 AM

The only hope McCain voters has is the poll cited by Alex - 2.1% lead with 8.9% undecided.

I've heard people here say if you haven't decided by now you're stupid (this is a condensed version, of course). I disagree. I think waiting until the last minute isn't a bad idea in such an important election. Goodness knows my vote or lack thereof has changed 100 times.

11-02-2008, 07:56 PM	#3
CoasterMatt BRAAAAAAAINS! Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: One Step Beyond... Posts: 8,802	Aren't you supposed to seek immediate health care if you experience an election lasting 4 years? __________________ Do you like my photography? Visit photosbymatt.tumblr.com to purchase prints!
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11-02-2008, 08:03 PM	#5
Alex . Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 13,354	Damn. IBD/TIPP and Rasmussen were both pretty good in 2004. IBD/TIPP currently has 46.7-44.6 Obama and Rasmussen is 51-46 Obama.
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11-03-2008, 10:05 AM	#7
Ghoulish Delight I Floop the Pig Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Alternative Swankstyle Posts: 19,348	Well, as the pollsters start rolling out their final estimates, all the major ones have Obama up by at least 5 points nationally. Many models are predicting that all he has to do is hold one or two of the battleground states, most of which he currently leads in. Some even say he can lose all the battleground states and still get the electoral win. I'm upgrading my mood to cautious optimism on the Obama front. __________________ 'He who receives an idea from me, receives instruction himself without lessening mine; as he who lights his taper at mine, receives light without darkening me.' -TJ
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11-03-2008, 10:07 AM	#8
cirquelover Cruising around in my automobile... Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Oregon Posts: 2,617	So according to ESPN you need to watch football tonight. They claim tht if Washington wins the same party will stay in the White House but if they lose then the other party wins.....I sure hope Washington loses tonight. They claim that it has been so for the last 17, that's a lot of elections!
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11-03-2008, 10:14 AM	#9
Alex . Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 13,354	Not that such coincidences mean anything, but the streak of 17 actually only goes through the 2000 election. This predictor was wrong in 2004 when Green Bay beat Washington, meaning that John Kerry should have won the election.
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11-03-2008, 10:53 AM	#10
scaeagles I LIKE! Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 7,819	The only hope McCain voters has is the poll cited by Alex - 2.1% lead with 8.9% undecided. I've heard people here say if you haven't decided by now you're stupid (this is a condensed version, of course). I disagree. I think waiting until the last minute isn't a bad idea in such an important election. Goodness knows my vote or lack thereof has changed 100 times.
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