2009 NCAA LoT Bracket Challenge

[Moonliner]

Originally Posted by Alex

It is. That number assumes that each game is a coin flip. They're not (or it would suggest that the seeders have no idea what they're going).

In the last two tournaments, there were 122 in which differently seeded teams played each other. The higher seeded team won 99 of them.

Of course, the odds are still really, really small.

The question was how many possible combinations, not probable so I think in this case the number is accurate.

[Alex]

Originally Posted by Moonliner

The question was how many possible combinations, not probable so I think in this case the number is accurate.

Ok, yes, the possible number of outcomes given was correct. I thought you were talking about the odds seeming wrong. They are (in the real world).

ETA: Though now that I think about it, I think the combinations number is too low by half but maybe I'm missing something. Because of the opening round game that determined the 16 seed for the midwest bracket there are 64 game played.

1 opening round game
15 games in each division
2 final four games
1 Finals game

So that is 2^64 possible outcomes or 18,446,744,073,709,600,000 (18.4 quintillion) outcomes. 9.2 quintillion is correct without the opening round game.

[Moonliner]

Originally Posted by Alex

Ok, yes, the possible number of outcomes given was correct. I thought you were talking about the odds seeming wrong. They are (in the real world).

ETA: Though now that I think about it, I think the combinations number is too low by half but maybe I'm missing something. Because of the opening round game that determined the 16 seed for the midwest bracket there are 64 game played.

1 opening round game
15 games in each division
2 final four games
1 Finals game

So that is 2^64 possible outcomes or 18,446,744,073,709,600,000 (18.4 quintillion) outcomes. 9.2 quintillion is correct without the opening round game.

That's for the entire tournament. The brackets don't typically include the play in game.