MLB '11

[Strangler Lewis]

Take out the closers, the victory bonus points and the weight given to so-called "wins," and I'll bet he is in the top ten.

Did this formula predict Felix Hernandez's Cy Young last year?

[Alex]

Originally Posted by Strangler Lewis

Take out the closers, the victory bonus points and the weight given to so-called "wins," and I'll bet he is in the top ten.

If you do that the only thing they're being judged on (in this formula) is how far below 5 their ERA is, how many people they strike out, and if they pitch complete game shutouts (which nobody particularly does any more (with Cliff Lee being the one one with more than 2).

And it is important to keep in mind that Bill James is not saying his formula reflects how pitchers SHOULD be judged (got knows he's not a fan of wins as an important stat), just that the formula does a pretty good job of predicting how people will vote.

But if we limit the formula as you describe above:

1. Clayton Keshaw - 67.4
2. Roy Halladay - 66.3
3. Cliff Lee - 73.8
4. Tim Lincecum - 63.2
5. Cole Hamels - 58.5
6. Matt Cain - 53.0
7. Johnny Cueto - 52.1
8. Tim Hudson - 48.7
9. Hiroki Kuroda - 47.9
10. Ian Kennedy - 47.3

Note this assumed that in addition to removing the wins part of the formula you'd also remove the losses part. If the losses part is kept in then Lincecum would fall behind Hamels.